- cross-posted to:
- climate@slrpnk.net
- climate@slrpnk.net
- cross-posted to:
- climate@slrpnk.net
- climate@slrpnk.net
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Going by everything else that we’ve seen as far as records being smashed and estimates being too conservative to be palatable to those who fund research, gonna have to say yes
I’m currently in Norway, which is projected (don’t have a citation) to see a 8 K cooling as the result of the AMOC collapse. I don’t know how much warming Norway will have by 2050, presumably 2-4 K.
Germany is expected to experience 2 K of cooling. So potentially the net result is around zero, ignoring probability of extreme events.
Asked ChatGPT to tldr:
The study suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could reach a tipping point this century, potentially around mid-century. This has drawn both attention and skepticism. One argument is about the data used to describe AMOC changes. They rely on sea surface temperatures in a specific region, and various indicators seem to align with AMOC reconstructions. Another criticism is the assumption that AMOC behavior follows a quadratic curve near the tipping point. However, this assumption seems plausible based on historical models. Regardless of certainty, the focus is on minimizing risks by transitioning away from fossil fuels to prevent potential catastrophic consequences of an AMOC collapse.
Tipping this decade?
I wouldn’t be surprised. There is some expectation that the circulation state change will occur very quickly once it gets started, and there are already multiple indications that we’re approaching the tipping point. Also this ENSO cycle is doing a lot of damage; I’m having trouble imagining what the other side of it is going to look like.
I’m fairly convinced at the moment that it will happen before 2050, but there’s not enough data and too much noise in what we’ve got to be certain of anything very specific. New data could change the picture. So could El Niño. Until then, my gut says no later than 2035. For clarity I do stand by the centennial vs interdecadal predictions and the researchers making them, I’m just trying to interpret the missing data and its likely implications. The state change is almost certainly going to occur FTE compared to models, so this is me exploring the question what is that FTE likely to actually look like? If each year this decade gets progressively worse, then 10 years out or so doesn’t sound all that unlikely to me.
It seems impossible to prepare for. Do you know if other variables will accelerate once this happens?
It seems impossible to prepare for.
Yeah… that’s my impression, too. We can make life easier for ourselves, but I’m not sure we can really be “prepared.”
Do you know if other variables will accelerate once this happens?
After a change to the AMOC slow state? I know that it has a direct effect, such as reduced temperatures and rainfall in much of Europe. Combined with other changes, that probably will look like a lowered average temperature but with an increase in volatility - periods of extreme heat intermixed with periods of extreme cold - at least in the shorter term. I can’t recall any tipping points that it might provoke though. If there is one my guess would be that it would be along the lines of ocean currents, acidity, and/or temperature. This will also affect the atmospheric currents like the changes in regional ocean temperatures cause during ENSO cycles, but again I’m not aware of any trends that would necessarily accelerate because of the AMOC state change. The data for modeling the AMOC is not at all ideal, even though there have been significant advances, so there are a lot of unknowns.
They say century not decade. Mid century is 2 decades away.
But scientists are the most conservative people I have ever met or worked with. They are almost certainly underplaying the timeline so as to make their conclusion more solid and defensible.
