A few weeks ago, a study by Copenhagen University researchers Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen concluded that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely to pass a tipping point already this century, most probably around mid-century. Given the catastrophic consequences of an AMOC breakdown, the study made quite a few headlines but also met some skepticism. Now that the dust has settled, here some thoughts on the criticisms that have been raised about this study. ...
It seems impossible to prepare for. Do you know if other variables will accelerate once this happens?
Yeah… that’s my impression, too. We can make life easier for ourselves, but I’m not sure we can really be “prepared.”
After a change to the AMOC slow state? I know that it has a direct effect, such as reduced temperatures and rainfall in much of Europe. Combined with other changes, that probably will look like a lowered average temperature but with an increase in volatility - periods of extreme heat intermixed with periods of extreme cold - at least in the shorter term. I can’t recall any tipping points that it might provoke though. If there is one my guess would be that it would be along the lines of ocean currents, acidity, and/or temperature. This will also affect the atmospheric currents like the changes in regional ocean temperatures cause during ENSO cycles, but again I’m not aware of any trends that would necessarily accelerate because of the AMOC state change. The data for modeling the AMOC is not at all ideal, even though there have been significant advances, so there are a lot of unknowns.