Here’s my prediction, but I’d like others to contribute their predictions as well. I think it’s important that we make ourselves aware of signs before they start showing, and that we have a record to point to if things play out exactly as we predict.
- Threads launches, federates with the 'verse, everything works well and actually seems hunky-dory. Even companies/restaurants/officials that use a Facebook page might be accessible via federation!
- Threads starts allowing their users to embed and interact with content from Facebook, Instagram, & possibly WhatsApp using Threads. Federated communities will be able to embed some of that content as well. Also, InstaWhatsBook users will be able to link to Threads posts as well.
- Sooner or later, embedded content from the Meta’s 'verse will encourage and eventually require you to be signed into Meta. This will be for the “security” and “privacy” of Meta users. But don’t worry, you’ll simply be able to link your federated instance’s account to a Meta account real easy, and even keep your credentials & karma status synced as well!
- Eventually posts from Threads users will be restricted even further and you’ll have to visit their site in order to “securely” view that content. Don’t worry though, you synced your account before so it’s not really an issue to just hop over.
- People get tired of having to hop over to Threads for most posts, and since their credentials are synced to both, it doesn’t really hurt to just stay on Threads and view federated posts from there.
- Meta changes the nature of their karma system so not everything syncs anymore. Of course you get the most benefit if you’re posting on Threads.
- Meta finally decides that federating “just isn’t in their best interest” and shuts down federation, leaving a husk of the Fediverse behind.
In an ideal world that would be great practice. But when Meta is sitting on 95% of the activity pubs usage, it’s just not going to be feasible to tell them “your problem”. Because that’s what users are going to be pushing for. Perhaps not you and me, and perhaps not many of those that have used services if the protocol for a while.
But the millions and millions who will be coming? They don’t care about Meta taking over. They’ll be mad when Mastodon stops syncing, or pixelfed. Who at that point have grown so much that there’ll be a huge public outcry if they don’t bend over backwards.