I am not super familiar with roulettes beyond betting on a color, so I’m completely lost here. You had me until after the $25 remaining bit. I think you’re describing the gambler’s fallacy though? And that’s not a good analogy for a two party system either.

I see it like we get $500 in chips at the casino for free, but they have no monetary value outside of the casino. So if you leave without cashing out (which requires a > $500 total value), there’s no real benefit.