Pennsylvania (R+ 2.4), Michigan (R+1.2), Georgia (R+3.1), Wisconsin (R+1.1) and Nevada (R+2.2) remain in the margin of error or statistically tied, but with a Republican advantage, according to his Sept. 6 analysis.
This is quite misleading. Harris is slightly ahead in all of those states.
Silver explicitly cautioned readers not to misinterpret those numbers:
Let me emphasize again, because we’re now firmly in silly season of the campaign where bad-faith actors can dominate the discussion, that these figures reflect the lean of each state relative to the national numbers — and not the raw projections. For instance, our polling averages still have Harris slightly ahead in Wisconsin, but we show it as GOP-leaning relative to the rest of the country
Yeah, going off the polling averages in each state, Harris is currently leading in most of the swing states, with Georgia and North Carolina* being dead even.
* North Carolina is the only one that changes based on the inclusion or exclusion of third party candidates. Since third party candidates will be on the ballot, including Kennedy, I’m using that data instead of the slight lead for Trump that the head to head polls have.
This is quite misleading. Harris is slightly ahead in all of those states.
Silver explicitly cautioned readers not to misinterpret those numbers:
Yeah, going off the polling averages in each state, Harris is currently leading in most of the swing states, with Georgia and North Carolina* being dead even.
* North Carolina is the only one that changes based on the inclusion or exclusion of third party candidates. Since third party candidates will be on the ballot, including Kennedy, I’m using that data instead of the slight lead for Trump that the head to head polls have.
Wait till you see the shenanigans the GOP pull in Georgia if it’s swinging blue… It’ll be shameless - I guarantee it.