Cluster bombs are highly effective at what they’re using them for. And the alternative is mines. Neither is exactly civilian friendly, but at least this way the failure rates are lower and the bombs you’re leaving behind are actually being targeted at something instead of buried and forgotten.
Neither is exactly civilian friendly, but at least this way the failure rates are lower and the bombs you’re leaving behind are actually being targeted at something instead of buried and forgotten.
i just question the accuracy of either of these assertions (failure rates of up to 30% are well publicized, and Russian cluster munitions in Ukraine have had an even higher rate than that)—and even if you accept they’re being targeted at something, how useful is that actually as a justification when the whole point of cluster munitions is sheer number and not accuracy?
Easy. A single artillery shell will likely miss, meaning you need to use more of them. Cluster munitions hit a wide area, and therefore you need to use less of them. It’s like using a shotgun vs a rifle. I’d highly recommend this video for more information.
Cluster munitions hit a wide area, and therefore you need to use less of them.
i don’t see what this really has to do with my point—and i’d also question that the history of cluster munitions shows restraint in their usage on the specific bases that they have a better theoretical spread of fire and efficiency than normal shelling. in general, when they’re used they’re used to excess and without much regard for what you’re talking about here because that’s just kind of what happens when you give people a new weapon. that’s part of why they’re so devastating to civilian populations even well after wars have ended
The big difference here is Ukraine is bombing their own territory. Ukraine is not going to use these indiscriminately, they’re not going to target civilian areas (like Russia already has). They have an invested interest in using them carefully and cleaning up the mess ASAP as soon as the war is over.
They have an invested interest in using them carefully and cleaning up the mess ASAP as soon as the war is over.
you’re free to take their word for this but every state fighting a war says that they’re going to use weapons responsibly. how many of them actually do so, or don’t commit war crimes in doing so? the US military, literally the most well funded and powerful combat force in the world (and a force which has not fought for its survival in a long time), still routinely kills civilians in circumstances where that’s avoidable. the idea that Ukraine will be “careful” in its usage of cluster bombs and not misuse them is hopium at best—particularly given the circumstances it’s in. and even if they want to be, again, the point of a cluster bomb is that it’s not a careful munition!
i also don’t think “the bad guys are doing this” is justification for also doing a bad thing that is widely recognized as a crime.
Ukraine has thought about this. They are bombing there own territory. They know this will leave unexploded ordinance. The know the more they use them, the more risk it is to their own citizens. They know if they use them in civilian centers they risk killing their own citizens. They’re not stupid, please don’t pretend like they are.
i also don’t think “the bad guys are doing this” is justification for also doing a bad thing that is widely recognized as a crime.
They’re fighting for survival, that’s plenty justification. They were invaded, Russia kidnapped their children and disappeared them. War sucks, people, including civilians, die. The longer this war goes on, the more people will die. The longer this war goes on, the more unexploded ordinance, conventional or cluster, will be left.
I’m sorry I just don’t understand your perspective. It seems like you believe that Ukraine would use these without caution within their borders because other aggressor nations have used them without cation outside their borders. That they will not put any effort into cleanup of their borders at the end of the war because other aggressor nations didn’t cleanup outside their borders at the end of a war.
It seems like you think they’re going to bomb their own cities and just leave them to be stumbled upon later. There will be a massive cleanup effort after the war is done, it will go on for years, or likely decades. Cluster munitions will help end the war sooner, that’s just an objective fact. Yeah, they suck, so do conventional bombs, so do mines, so does war in general.
Ukraine has thought about this. They are bombing there own territory. They know this will leave unexploded ordinance. The know the more they use them, the more risk it is to their own citizens. They know if they use them in civilian centers they risk killing their own citizens. They’re not stupid, please don’t pretend like they are.
Ukraine’s judgement isn’t infallible or above criticism and it is possible for them to be wrong. the idea that the whole country is being infantilized or called stupid in being told not to commit war crimes or use what are widely recognized as criminal munitions is just silly.
They’re fighting for survival, that’s plenty justification. They were invaded, Russia kidnapped their children and disappeared them. War sucks, people, including civilians, die. The longer this war goes on, the more people will die. The longer this war goes on, the more unexploded ordinance, conventional or cluster, will be left.
this is an argument for unrestricted war crimes—because those would make the war end quicker—and i hope you understand that. “survival” does not mean “a get out of jail free card to do whatever you want, even if it’s against international law or widely seen as illegal.”
this is sort of what i mean here, by the way. you are the sort of person who is going to, if Ukraine starts executing Russian soldiers or taking retributive action against citizens of Ukraine who support Russia for whatever reason, be the first in line to defend that on these frankly horrifying grounds.
this is sort of what i mean here, by the way. you are the sort of person who is going to, if Ukraine starts executing Russian soldiers or taking retributive action against citizens of Ukraine who support Russia for whatever reason, be the first in line to defend that on these frankly horrifying grounds.
I think Ukraine, specifically, has a huge incentive to show as much restraint in their use as possible here. If you have evidence that defending militaries using cluster munitions typically fail to do so, then I’d be interested to see that.
If you have evidence that defending militaries using cluster munitions typically fail to do so, then I’d be interested to see that.
ironically the best recent example of this is Ukraine (most sovereign states being invaded at this stage of history don’t have or aren’t known to have cluster munitions)—it is exceedingly likely that in the past 9 years Ukraine has used them without much restraint. Georgia also admitted to using them pretty freely when they were being invaded by Russia in 2008.
As far as I can tell from a quick skim, that article is about firing cluster munitions into populated areas. I think we can both agree that this is a war crime and the people responsible should be in prison. I don’t think it would have been any less of a war crime if either Ukraine or Russia had been firing conventional munitions into populated areas, though. I also don’t think it has much bearing on Ukraine’s likely actions in this war, since it’s a conventional war rather than an insurgency with most fighting taking place inside major cities - even ignoring basic decency, there is simply no reason for them to brutalise their own population that way. I was more interested in evidence of a defensive use of cluster munitions which hadn’t been properly cleaned up, which was the direction of the conversation to that point.
We’re at an impasse and I’m going to agree to disagree here. Specifically on them being used without much regard for accuracy because that just seems nonsensical. The whole goal of shooting at a thing (or a person) is to hit it (or them). Firing at random just wastes ammo and doesn’t help the war effort. As for “used to excess”, how do you define what’s excessive? Certainly an artillery battery will not keep firing once the target has been killed. And as for the cluster munitions being devastating to civilian populations well after the war ends, so are mines and no one is complaining about either side using those. Not to mention the Russians started using cluster munitions first so if anything this is just achieving force parity.
this is demonstrably false: as i noted in another comment and even in ideal circumstances, the Pentagon’s data—rather than its words and idle wishes—suggest a failure rate of at least 14%.
The Pentagon said the weapons they would send to Ukraine had a failure rate of 2.35 percent or less, far better than the usual rate that is common for cluster weapons.
But the Pentagon’s own statements indicate that the cluster munitions in question contain older grenades known to have a failure rate of 14 percent or more.
here is the original document they are quoting from. page 31/32 (35/36 in the .pdf’s numbering) states that:
U.S. ammunition stockpile sample testing also indicated that DOD has experienced past problems with submunition reliability rates. For example, in 1990, testing of artillery-delivered nonland-mine submunitions identified two lots that had duds in excess of 40 percent. According to a testing document, one way to compensate for this high dud rate is to increase the quantity fired. Instructions contained in the testing document were to “Notify the user of the increase in submissile defect rate so that he can make adjustments in the tactical employment plans.” The July 2000 Army study of dud rates for ammunition reports that the dud rate for artillery-fired M42/46 submunitions is over 14 percent.
the Pentagon’s actual, data based estimate (and not its uh, lying) correspond well to other data reported by groups such as Human Rights Watch (which have routinely found submunitions to have rates like that across the board), and specialists in the field who anecdotally report rates of as high as 30%.
the Pentagon’s actual, data based estimate (and not its uh, lying)
The Pentagon’s five actual, data-based and more recent estimates, which indicate a much lower rate, are classified. Otherwise I take your point, seems you’re essentially right about the failure rate.
I suspect the failure rate is higher than what the Pentagon is saying, probably ranging from 2-25% depending on conditions. At least it’s much safer than the cluster munitions the Kremlin is using.
The Pentagon’s five actual, data-based and more recent estimates, which indicate a much lower rate, are classified.
oh, fascinating. i’m sure there’s a banal reason why the Pentagon totally can’t release these supposed much lower rates and has to classify them—but we definitely have lower rates of duds now, believe us this time! the Pentagon would never do things like selectively classify or release data to manipulate narratives, misrepresent how dangerous things are or the severity of certain weapons or political trespasses, or generally and systemically lie about everything. that’s why, for example, whenever we audit where our money is going and to what things, they fail said audit. i’m definitely going to take their classified word for it here instead of all the actual data (including some of their own previous data) which strongly implies they are lying as they usually do.
that is a claim by the Pentagon, which is so categorically untrustworthy on matters such as these that it really is not worth taking seriously. their actually-backed-by-data estimate on the same munitions is a 14% dud rate (and there are reasons to believe the rate is higher than that) and that quite literally follows the section you are excerpting from.
The editorial board cites the fact that the cluster munitions being sent by the US have a “very low dud rate,” and will therefore pose less of a risk to civilians. The Pentagon claims that the munitions it is sending have a dud rate of 2.35%; even if that’s accurate, it exceeds the 1% limit the Pentagon itself considers acceptable.
According to the New York Times’ John Ismay (7/7/23), a failure rate of 2.35% “would mean that for every two shells fired, about three unexploded grenades would be left scattered on the target area.” There is reason to believe that the true dud rate may be much higher—possibly exceeding 14%, by the Pentagon’s own reckoning.
Cluster bombs are highly effective at what they’re using them for. And the alternative is mines. Neither is exactly civilian friendly, but at least this way the failure rates are lower and the bombs you’re leaving behind are actually being targeted at something instead of buried and forgotten.
i just question the accuracy of either of these assertions (failure rates of up to 30% are well publicized, and Russian cluster munitions in Ukraine have had an even higher rate than that)—and even if you accept they’re being targeted at something, how useful is that actually as a justification when the whole point of cluster munitions is sheer number and not accuracy?
Easy. A single artillery shell will likely miss, meaning you need to use more of them. Cluster munitions hit a wide area, and therefore you need to use less of them. It’s like using a shotgun vs a rifle. I’d highly recommend this video for more information.
https://youtu.be/1zcUe47xerQ
i don’t see what this really has to do with my point—and i’d also question that the history of cluster munitions shows restraint in their usage on the specific bases that they have a better theoretical spread of fire and efficiency than normal shelling. in general, when they’re used they’re used to excess and without much regard for what you’re talking about here because that’s just kind of what happens when you give people a new weapon. that’s part of why they’re so devastating to civilian populations even well after wars have ended
The big difference here is Ukraine is bombing their own territory. Ukraine is not going to use these indiscriminately, they’re not going to target civilian areas (like Russia already has). They have an invested interest in using them carefully and cleaning up the mess ASAP as soon as the war is over.
you’re free to take their word for this but every state fighting a war says that they’re going to use weapons responsibly. how many of them actually do so, or don’t commit war crimes in doing so? the US military, literally the most well funded and powerful combat force in the world (and a force which has not fought for its survival in a long time), still routinely kills civilians in circumstances where that’s avoidable. the idea that Ukraine will be “careful” in its usage of cluster bombs and not misuse them is hopium at best—particularly given the circumstances it’s in. and even if they want to be, again, the point of a cluster bomb is that it’s not a careful munition!
i also don’t think “the bad guys are doing this” is justification for also doing a bad thing that is widely recognized as a crime.
Ukraine has thought about this. They are bombing there own territory. They know this will leave unexploded ordinance. The know the more they use them, the more risk it is to their own citizens. They know if they use them in civilian centers they risk killing their own citizens. They’re not stupid, please don’t pretend like they are.
They’re fighting for survival, that’s plenty justification. They were invaded, Russia kidnapped their children and disappeared them. War sucks, people, including civilians, die. The longer this war goes on, the more people will die. The longer this war goes on, the more unexploded ordinance, conventional or cluster, will be left.
I’m sorry I just don’t understand your perspective. It seems like you believe that Ukraine would use these without caution within their borders because other aggressor nations have used them without cation outside their borders. That they will not put any effort into cleanup of their borders at the end of the war because other aggressor nations didn’t cleanup outside their borders at the end of a war.
It seems like you think they’re going to bomb their own cities and just leave them to be stumbled upon later. There will be a massive cleanup effort after the war is done, it will go on for years, or likely decades. Cluster munitions will help end the war sooner, that’s just an objective fact. Yeah, they suck, so do conventional bombs, so do mines, so does war in general.
Ukraine’s judgement isn’t infallible or above criticism and it is possible for them to be wrong. the idea that the whole country is being infantilized or called stupid in being told not to commit war crimes or use what are widely recognized as criminal munitions is just silly.
this is an argument for unrestricted war crimes—because those would make the war end quicker—and i hope you understand that. “survival” does not mean “a get out of jail free card to do whatever you want, even if it’s against international law or widely seen as illegal.”
this is sort of what i mean here, by the way. you are the sort of person who is going to, if Ukraine starts executing Russian soldiers or taking retributive action against citizens of Ukraine who support Russia for whatever reason, be the first in line to defend that on these frankly horrifying grounds.
How dare you say I would find that acceptable.
That is not acceptable conduct for a moderator.
I think Ukraine, specifically, has a huge incentive to show as much restraint in their use as possible here. If you have evidence that defending militaries using cluster munitions typically fail to do so, then I’d be interested to see that.
ironically the best recent example of this is Ukraine (most sovereign states being invaded at this stage of history don’t have or aren’t known to have cluster munitions)—it is exceedingly likely that in the past 9 years Ukraine has used them without much restraint. Georgia also admitted to using them pretty freely when they were being invaded by Russia in 2008.
As far as I can tell from a quick skim, that article is about firing cluster munitions into populated areas. I think we can both agree that this is a war crime and the people responsible should be in prison. I don’t think it would have been any less of a war crime if either Ukraine or Russia had been firing conventional munitions into populated areas, though. I also don’t think it has much bearing on Ukraine’s likely actions in this war, since it’s a conventional war rather than an insurgency with most fighting taking place inside major cities - even ignoring basic decency, there is simply no reason for them to brutalise their own population that way. I was more interested in evidence of a defensive use of cluster munitions which hadn’t been properly cleaned up, which was the direction of the conversation to that point.
We’re at an impasse and I’m going to agree to disagree here. Specifically on them being used without much regard for accuracy because that just seems nonsensical. The whole goal of shooting at a thing (or a person) is to hit it (or them). Firing at random just wastes ammo and doesn’t help the war effort. As for “used to excess”, how do you define what’s excessive? Certainly an artillery battery will not keep firing once the target has been killed. And as for the cluster munitions being devastating to civilian populations well after the war ends, so are mines and no one is complaining about either side using those. Not to mention the Russians started using cluster munitions first so if anything this is just achieving force parity.
The US-provided cluster bombs have something like a 3% failure rate.
this is demonstrably false: as i noted in another comment and even in ideal circumstances, the Pentagon’s data—rather than its words and idle wishes—suggest a failure rate of at least 14%.
What’s your source for either of your claims?
right here:
here is the original document they are quoting from. page 31/32 (35/36 in the .pdf’s numbering) states that:
the Pentagon’s actual, data based estimate (and not its uh, lying) correspond well to other data reported by groups such as Human Rights Watch (which have routinely found submunitions to have rates like that across the board), and specialists in the field who anecdotally report rates of as high as 30%.
The Pentagon’s five actual, data-based and more recent estimates, which indicate a much lower rate, are classified. Otherwise I take your point, seems you’re essentially right about the failure rate.
I suspect the failure rate is higher than what the Pentagon is saying, probably ranging from 2-25% depending on conditions. At least it’s much safer than the cluster munitions the Kremlin is using.
oh, fascinating. i’m sure there’s a banal reason why the Pentagon totally can’t release these supposed much lower rates and has to classify them—but we definitely have lower rates of duds now, believe us this time! the Pentagon would never do things like selectively classify or release data to manipulate narratives, misrepresent how dangerous things are or the severity of certain weapons or political trespasses, or generally and systemically lie about everything. that’s why, for example, whenever we audit where our money is going and to what things, they fail said audit. i’m definitely going to take their classified word for it here instead of all the actual data (including some of their own previous data) which strongly implies they are lying as they usually do.
Yeah if you have any sources to back that up I’m all ears, otherwise it’s pure conjecture.
Fortunately, the article states that the munitions have a dud rate of 2.35%, rather than 30%.
that is a claim by the Pentagon, which is so categorically untrustworthy on matters such as these that it really is not worth taking seriously. their actually-backed-by-data estimate on the same munitions is a 14% dud rate (and there are reasons to believe the rate is higher than that) and that quite literally follows the section you are excerpting from.