In a show of deepening ties, Taiwan opens its first Middle East working holiday program, inviting up to 200 Israelis annually to live, work and build lasting cultural connections in the East Asian nation
These are not rational actors. Neither is Ukraine. Both are and would be in this scenario run by liberal fanatics/fascist fanatics willing to burn their nation to a cinder for the US. Ukraine is illustrative of this point not really mattering per se.
The situation in Taiwan is clearly quite different from Ukraine, for example we just found out that DPP has been infiltrated at the highest levels. https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202506100009
The US backed puppets in Taiwan are hanging by a thread right now. There’s no fascist nationalist movement in Taiwan to exploit the way there was in Ukraine. Most people still see themselves as being Chinese, and every poll shows that vast majority of people want to maintain the status quo. The support for independence is practically nil. The military also appears to realize that a war with the mainland would be a disaster, and there’s a pretty high chance of a military coup if the government actually tried to move in that direction. The war in Ukraine is also obviously a psychological factor for Taiwan. It’s a clear illustration of what will happen to them, and that the US cannot save them.
My expectation is that KMT will likely get in power sooner than later, and they will make a deal with the mainland to repatriate. These are the last gasps of the US backed regime in Taiwan.
And targeting Russia’s nuclear triad and hitting their bombers with obvious help from NATO intelligence isn’t?
We have yet to see how Russia will respond to that. I know the west thinks they can do whatever they like, but eventually they will cross another red line like they did with Ukraine and it will result in major blowback. The war in Ukraine has been an unmitigated disaster for the west. It destroyed Europe economically, it effectively demilitarized NATO, it exposed lack of industrial capacity in the west, and it broke dollar hegemony on the world. The empire is far weaker today than it was three years ago.
Only if China chooses to and given Russia keeps blinking they may think China will as well and that they can unilaterally escalate while their foes will avoid it, giving them the advantage.
Russia is taking the rational approach in my opinion. They’re defeating NATO in Ukraine, but avoiding a wider escalation that would not be in Russia’s interest. The ultimate defeat for the west will be economic in nature. We’re already seeing the panic in Europe over having to vastly increase military spending, and at the same time we see growing political instability due to a collapse in the standard of living. This is not a sustainable situation. Meanwhile, the US isn’t doing much better, especially now that they’ve started an economic war with the whole world.
There’s no need for Russia to make a big attack on the west that might actually rally public opinion for an open war with Russia. It’s much better to just let the west implode economically and tear itself apart.
Is it? I saw a story of the head of JSOC talking of naval drones and basically mining the whole straits, turning into a zone China cannot cross and using that time to do whatever they want including landing forces.
As far as I know this is nothing more than a drug fueled fantasy.
They have island chains and have been building naval drones in secret for some time now so they can do over the horizon type fighting.
Given that the US can’t build much of anything, I have serious doubts they’ve built any significant amount of these naval drones, if any at all. The current rare earth export restrictions will certainly make sure they’re not building any more going forward.
Their point like with Ukraine is to bleed China, not to triumphantly plant the US flag but to bleed them, to hurt them, to study them and learn their secrets, to demoralize them, to force it to take longer and be costlier and to make it a big spectacle they can use to rally the western world against China around as this big travesty and atrocity.
I just don’t see how this works in practice. Anything the US can build, China can build more of. If naval drones become the major weapon, then China will simply be building hundreds to thousands more of these things for each one that the US can produce.
I really don’t see what this advantage you’re talking about is. It seems quite obvious to me that the opposite is the case. The supply chain situation is an operational nightmare for the US. They have to ship weapons half way across the world, while China produces them locally. In a war of attrition, which is what this would be, China has the exact same advantage as Russia.
Which is why they’re so desperate to decouple.
They understand their vulnerability, but they’re just manifesting. The reality is that there is no way for the US to reshore the industry at scale. The only way to do that would be by making a massive government run program the way they did during WW2, and there’s no political will to do something like that. Even if that was possible, it would still take decades to establish local supply chain, train workers, build factories, and so on. It’s a colossal project that can’t be willed into existence no matter how much they want to.
I just worry most about the nukes flying. I hope this conflict doesn’t start until China has a chance to massively expand their arsenal and proof it against Aegis and ground and orbital interceptors.
I imagine the current arsenal is already sufficient to devastate the US. The interceptors simply don’t work in practice. Even the whole golden dome idea is pure nonsense. https://youtu.be/D9Wzlqh7bIs
The US would not survive a nuclear war. However, the scary part is that US leadership might think that they will, and if they do start a nuclear war based on that assumption then we are all doomed. This is the only genuine worry I have about this whole thing.
The situation in Taiwan is clearly quite different from Ukraine, for example we just found out that DPP has been infiltrated at the highest levels. https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202506100009
The US backed puppets in Taiwan are hanging by a thread right now. There’s no fascist nationalist movement in Taiwan to exploit the way there was in Ukraine. Most people still see themselves as being Chinese, and every poll shows that vast majority of people want to maintain the status quo. The support for independence is practically nil. The military also appears to realize that a war with the mainland would be a disaster, and there’s a pretty high chance of a military coup if the government actually tried to move in that direction. The war in Ukraine is also obviously a psychological factor for Taiwan. It’s a clear illustration of what will happen to them, and that the US cannot save them.
My expectation is that KMT will likely get in power sooner than later, and they will make a deal with the mainland to repatriate. These are the last gasps of the US backed regime in Taiwan.
We have yet to see how Russia will respond to that. I know the west thinks they can do whatever they like, but eventually they will cross another red line like they did with Ukraine and it will result in major blowback. The war in Ukraine has been an unmitigated disaster for the west. It destroyed Europe economically, it effectively demilitarized NATO, it exposed lack of industrial capacity in the west, and it broke dollar hegemony on the world. The empire is far weaker today than it was three years ago.
Russia is taking the rational approach in my opinion. They’re defeating NATO in Ukraine, but avoiding a wider escalation that would not be in Russia’s interest. The ultimate defeat for the west will be economic in nature. We’re already seeing the panic in Europe over having to vastly increase military spending, and at the same time we see growing political instability due to a collapse in the standard of living. This is not a sustainable situation. Meanwhile, the US isn’t doing much better, especially now that they’ve started an economic war with the whole world.
There’s no need for Russia to make a big attack on the west that might actually rally public opinion for an open war with Russia. It’s much better to just let the west implode economically and tear itself apart.
As far as I know this is nothing more than a drug fueled fantasy.
Given that the US can’t build much of anything, I have serious doubts they’ve built any significant amount of these naval drones, if any at all. The current rare earth export restrictions will certainly make sure they’re not building any more going forward.
I just don’t see how this works in practice. Anything the US can build, China can build more of. If naval drones become the major weapon, then China will simply be building hundreds to thousands more of these things for each one that the US can produce.
I really don’t see what this advantage you’re talking about is. It seems quite obvious to me that the opposite is the case. The supply chain situation is an operational nightmare for the US. They have to ship weapons half way across the world, while China produces them locally. In a war of attrition, which is what this would be, China has the exact same advantage as Russia.
They understand their vulnerability, but they’re just manifesting. The reality is that there is no way for the US to reshore the industry at scale. The only way to do that would be by making a massive government run program the way they did during WW2, and there’s no political will to do something like that. Even if that was possible, it would still take decades to establish local supply chain, train workers, build factories, and so on. It’s a colossal project that can’t be willed into existence no matter how much they want to.
I imagine the current arsenal is already sufficient to devastate the US. The interceptors simply don’t work in practice. Even the whole golden dome idea is pure nonsense. https://youtu.be/D9Wzlqh7bIs
The US would not survive a nuclear war. However, the scary part is that US leadership might think that they will, and if they do start a nuclear war based on that assumption then we are all doomed. This is the only genuine worry I have about this whole thing.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: