Discover how EV dominance between 40–80% triggers rapid system change: fuel closures, mechanic job losses, and skyrocketing maintenance for combustion cars.
While I agree in general, the decline of gas stations started long before now. The first reports i can find about the rapidly declining number of gas stations are from the later part of the -00s. Back then it was because cars had better mileage, but it also highlights that petrol stations don’t go bust because 100% of customers disappear. They go bust because 100% of the profits disappear and if the profit margin is only a few percent, that doesn’t necessarily take much at all.
There are other factors as well. When a commodity goes from a high volume, low margin commodity to a high value necessity, prices will start to come up.
I also wonder what happens further up the production chain. It isn’t just cars that are affected, transportation is too. The big push right now is for electrified heavy road transport. And if dents are made in that sector, the real high volume fuel, effects will be seen in everything from transportation to agriculture.
As for car parts, SAAB went bust in 2008 and there are still plenty of those around. However, that was before the digital revolution, so they are easier (not easy) DIY cars. Finding dealer specific experts with required skills and software is harder for newer cars.
While I agree in general, the decline of gas stations started long before now. The first reports i can find about the rapidly declining number of gas stations are from the later part of the -00s. Back then it was because cars had better mileage, but it also highlights that petrol stations don’t go bust because 100% of customers disappear. They go bust because 100% of the profits disappear and if the profit margin is only a few percent, that doesn’t necessarily take much at all.
There are other factors as well. When a commodity goes from a high volume, low margin commodity to a high value necessity, prices will start to come up.
I also wonder what happens further up the production chain. It isn’t just cars that are affected, transportation is too. The big push right now is for electrified heavy road transport. And if dents are made in that sector, the real high volume fuel, effects will be seen in everything from transportation to agriculture.
As for car parts, SAAB went bust in 2008 and there are still plenty of those around. However, that was before the digital revolution, so they are easier (not easy) DIY cars. Finding dealer specific experts with required skills and software is harder for newer cars.