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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • This is using the German projection reports from the UBA, which is a ministry run by the Greens. Those tend to be overly negative. Last years report projected a rise of German emissions by a few percent, what happened was a drop of 10%. This year they again project rising emissions, but the Q1 data shows a 6.6% drop in emissions, with Q2 electricity data also looking rather decent. Even so the report finds most sectors will be within emission limits. The only ones with problems are buidling, which is mainly heating, and transport. The building sector is projected to be slighly over the emission targets, with some rather important laws having been passed last year, which according to the report close the gap to 96Mt to 32Mt until 2030. Transport is doing much worse however. The gap is massive at 180Mt until 2030 and most laws, which would have a large impact being blocked. To be fair the gap is smaller then the projection from last year at 210Mt.

    Point is, that this is pessimistic. However climate change is a massive issue and obviously doing more to cut emissions is the right thing to do.


  • China emits nearly twice as much as the US these days. At this rate China is overtaking the US in 25 years or so. Probably sooner as US emissions are dropping, whereas Chinas emissions are increasing.

    Obviously Chinas per capita emissions are below the US, but they are still nearly twice the global ones and above those of the EU or UK for example. When you look at cumulative per capita emissions China is about averge. However that includes a lot of emissions from dead people and for China those are nearly zero. If you only look at cumulative emissions since 1990 China is about as bad as the EU on a per capita bases. However with 30% of annual emissions.

    So please do not pretend that China is not responsible for climate change. They absolutly are.