Sammmy [none/use name]

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Joined 5 months ago
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Cake day: January 6th, 2026

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  • I appreciate your post. I’m sure there’s more that can be added. I was thinking today about Trump’s argument that the US or Big Oil was robbed when the Bolivarian Revolution kicked them out of Venezuela, with a billion dollars compensation. I’ve seen an article claiming Big Oil had invested at least five billion in oil extraction infrastructure in Venezuela, as if this substantiated the claim of robbery or even just unfair treatment. I have not seen anybody attempt yet to produce a figure for just how much profit Big Oil made during its time in Venezuela, or how much profit in total they had made by the time they were booted out. Since the search engines all have AI, I went down that rabbit hole, and an AI produced this. It has citations, such as they are. However I have not checked their veracity, and AI makes things up, so I take these figures as something to be investigated further.

    Perplexity AI summary after a series prompts:


    Big Oil companies operating in Venezuela from 1914 to 1976 likely earned a total of approximately $50–200 billion in nominal dollars (profits retained after royalties/taxes plus $1 billion compensation bonds), based on production data and fiscal terms across the era.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Venezuelan_oil_industry

    ​ Low-End Breakdown

    The minimum (~$50 billion) factors low early output (e.g., 6,000 barrels/day in 1922 at ~$2/barrel, 16⅔% royalties allowing high company margins), ramping to 1.1 million barrels/day by 1948 under 50-50 splits, with firms retaining ~$25–40 billion pre-1976 plus bonds—far exceeding $5 billion investments.

    https://scholarship.law.vanderbilt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2516&context=vjtl

    ​ High-End Breakdown

    The maximum (~$200 billion) includes 1970s peaks (3+ million barrels/day at $10+/barrel), 35–50% retained shares despite 65% government take, yielding $150+ billion profits atop bonds amid booms like 1929’s 137 million barrels.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/09/business/venezuela-oil-industry-timeline-trump.html

    ​ Adjustment Note

    In 2026 dollars, this range scales to $300 billion–$1.5 trillion, highlighting massive returns before nationalization handed PDVSA a thriving industry.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/09/business/venezuela-oil-industry-timeline-trump.html


    If this is anywhere true, which would be no surprise at all, the notion Big Oil was robbed by Venezuela is absurd. The claim is absurd on its face to those just somewhat familiar with imperialism and Big Oil. However it is out there and some people may need a prod to think about it a bit more, so they don’t buy it uncritically.

    *Sorry if I have broken Rule two. Haven’t gotten the archive link to work.