Venezuela, though not lost, is in a terrible position. They have no real way to defend themselves, and have to do their best to not get overthrown by the US. This, though, is harder to say. They’re basically throwing another AES nation under the bus to keep their government afloat. Though, Cuba has a better chance of surviving a US attack than Venezuela. Overall, I think we need to give the situation time to develop.

A mostly Unitary state with regional autonomies to avoid undue separatism, and some degree of federalism to avoid a governmental collapse if the capital falls for whatever reason.