There are some numbers in this blog post https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-is-a-systemic-risk-to-the-tech-industry-2/ (and a couple of others on the same blog) and they really don’t look like OpenAI is going to last a couple of years until profitability.
The difficult question about AGI destroying humanity is deciding whether to be afraid of that option or to cheer it on and LLM enthusiasts are certainly among the people heavily pushing me towards the ‘cheer it on’ option.
As a standalone thing, LLMs are awesome.
They really aren’t though and that is half the problem. Everyone pretends they are awesome when the results are unusable garbage 80% of the time which makes them unusable for 99% of practical applications.
The difference between AI companies and most other tech companies is that AI companies have significant expenses that scale with the number of customers.
Probably not going to go belly-up, in a while
Don’t be so sure about that, the numbers look incredibly bad for them in terms of money burned per actual revenue, never mind profit. They can’t even pay for the inference alone (never mind training, staff, rent,…) from the subscriptions.
True, but my point was that even a lot of the commercial websites that do have other products do not depend on ads, e.g. Amazon and all the other stores would still be there, every company offering a paid service would still be there, every company providing a service related to their RL goods (e.g. specs, drivers, product descriptions, lists of stores where you can buy them,…) would still be there.
Advertising does not finance a very large percentage of the useful parts of the internet. And among those advertising financed websites that are useful a lot are essentially duplicates to get a chunk of the ad revenue without doing a lot of work (e.g. almost all news websites that just republish AP, Reuters,… content).
The internet isn’t built on it. The commercial websites who do not have other products (as in all the websites related to RL goods, stores,…) are.
Don’t forget that they are literally being lead by a political movement named after the history denying idea that they were “great” at some point and want to get back to that (never mind the other lie that the leaders of the movement don’t actually want to get back to any particular point in history despite the name)
Are you somehow under the impression that just because it is “global” there are no transmitters and receivers and distance does not matter?
Counterpoint, if you don’t create a new device at least once every 2 years there will be people who disregard your latest device in their purchase decision because it is so old.
“Never forget” is great and all but from a German perspective it seems to not be enough. It is much more important to make sure the same or very similar things do not happen again, not by China and not by any other nation. Otherwise you end up like we did here in Germany where decades of “never forget” lead to very similar sentiments being expressed by a new major party but since things are slightly different (e.g. the “never forget” was always phrased to be about Jews, this is more about foreigners in general) people seem to allow themselves to ignore them.
This means that Israel presently relies on an external backer for its security (the US).
Makes you wonder if Israel is trying to grab as much land as possible and eliminate as many people who might have competing claims on that land as possible before the US collapses economically (and with that their giant military budget) now that Donald Trump is doing his best to make that a reality.
I disagree…with your decision to limit your statement to their smartphones instead of applying it to all of their devices.
The Indian Turk or short IT-worker.
Asian Intelligence?
The big difference is that an atomic bomb would still be useful once it is revealed while this would likely be significantly less effective.
Intel is very different from secrets. Secrets can be blown wide open if they are leaked by one person.
You are confusing nations with people. You can’t trust a nation (or any other organization), you can only trust individuals because an organization can always contain individuals of diametrically opposed behaviors.
Why would anyone even consider telling any politicians of foreign nations about a top secret project like that, much less blabbermouths like Donald Trump?
Name a single task you would trust an LLM on solving for you that you feel confident would be correct without checking the output. Because that is my definition of perfectly and AI falls very, very far short of that.