cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/12353864

On November 1, Montenegro reintroduced visa requirements for Russian citizens as part of aligning its visa policy with the European Union. The decision, which also covers several other countries, is part of the obligations accompanying European integration. But it also provides an opening for a familiar form of political pressure: presenting Montenegro’s Western orientation as a threat to its economic survival. Tourism supplies the argument, while fear of economic collapse supplies the mechanism.

The claim that Montenegro cannot survive without Russian tourists has a political function. It turns a commercial relationship into an argument against the country’s strategic choices. Within this narrative, European integration becomes economically destructive, compliance with European rules becomes submission to Brussels, and Russia appears as an indispensable partner whose interests Montenegro disregards at its peril. The intended political consequence is to weaken confidence in the country’s Western orientation by convincing citizens that it threatens their livelihoods.

…

This mechanism has a documented precedent. During Montenegro’s movement towards NATO membership, Russian officials explicitly connected its strategic choices with economic consequences. In March 2017, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Montenegro of sacrificing its economic relationship with Russia by joining the alliance. Russian media subsequently circulated negative accounts portraying Montenegro as an unsafe destination.

…

That episode explains why the current visa debate must be understood in a broader context. The specific policy changes, but the underlying message remains available: moving closer to the West will impoverish Montenegro. Repetition gives this argument continuity across otherwise different decisions, including NATO membership, relations with Moscow and European integration. Its effectiveness depends on establishing an exaggerated perception of Russian economic importance before presenting any departure from Moscow’s preferences as dangerous.

…

Information campaigns work particularly well when they build on recognisable experiences. A landlord who regularly hosts Russian guests does not need to be persuaded that those visitors matter. The manipulation begins when that individual exposure is presented as the condition of the entire national economy. Property ownership, investment, tourist arrivals and overnight stays are then combined into a single impression of overwhelming dependence. Each contributes to Russia’s visibility, but they measure different economic relationships and cannot simply be added together.

…

Montenegro’s response should combine factual rebuttal with competent policy.

…

The central issue is Russia’s ability to convert perceptions of economic importance into political pressure. Tourism gives that pressure a direct connection to household incomes, making it particularly useful in information campaigns intended to undermine confidence and deepen internal divisions. Montenegro weakens this instrument when it demonstrates that Russian visitors remain welcome, European obligations remain binding, and national policy cannot be dictated by a manufactured fear of economic collapse.

…

Archived