Florida is nearing toss-up status as poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished
www.independent.co.uk
Race and age of Florida respondents seemed to correlate with which candidate they supported
  • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
    21·
    3 months ago

    Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020

    ? In this very comment section you were mentioning polling average earlier that showed it as ~2.5%

    Assuming the error is the same direction as 2020 is not a given. Pollsters have made changes to their model that intentionally put more weight on areas likely to have trump supporters. Amid other changes

    Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either

    • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
      22·
      3 months ago

      You can go check the exact sources. I think Kamala is down in FL -2, -3? Depends on your source and poll aggregator. Biden was up ~+3 ~+4. Final result was -4? So call it a 6-7 point structural bias. Doesn’t diminish my point.

      Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either

      Yeah thats just self delusion. You clearly have a specific confirmation bias your working to attend to. You shouldn’t delude yourself and others because reality is difficult and shitty. We only hurt yourself when we live in fantasy.

      • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
        61·
        3 months ago

        Look if you thought the polling bias in the previous election always determined the next one, you would’ve thought Hillary was in for a big landslide because dems were systematically underestimated in 2012 including in florida. Obviously it did not go the same way. It’s not limited to 2012 either

        Pollster make adjustments every cycle. In this case, many have made some quite large ones. How much that effects the results isn’t fully knowable until only after the election happens

        • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
          37·
          3 months ago

          Dude you just very obviously do not know what the fuck you are talking about and want things to look better than they are. You should stop.

          I get it. It sucks that the Harris campaign has flat lined and appears to be backsliding. But creating an alternative reality for your head to live in is not a healthy way to go through life. Or maybe it is, fuck I dont know that you aren’t better off living in a state of self delusion.

          • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
            23·
            3 months ago

            An alternative reality is saying that polling error is uncertain? I didn’t declare anything about it’s direction or even that it couldn’t be the same as it was earlier

            This is something plenty of election modeling people say all the time

            Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

            https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

            The reason there’s no long-running polling bias is because pollsters try to correct for their mistakes. That means there’s always the risk of undercorrecting (which apparently happened this time) or overcorrecting (see the 2017 U.K. general election, where pollsters did all sorts of dodgy things in an effort to not underestimate Conservatives … and wound up underestimating the Labour Party instead)

            https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/

            • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
              33·
              3 months ago

              I’m just not interested in anything you have to say any longer with regards to statistics. Its obvious you don’t have a handle on this things and blog spamming 538 doesn’t change anything about you. However, I might be interested in that cocoon of warm self delusion you’ve created for yourself. Might be the last time we get to have the “happy chemicals” for a very long time.