- cross-posted to:
- business@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- business@lemmy.world
“The president single-handedly wiped out Americans’ retirement savings overnight and subjected businesses to intense whiplash with his increasingly erratic and chaotic policies that continue to drive consumer and business uncertainty.”
If they say 60% odds when it’s obviously 100%, how does one go about making money on the spread?
The reason is that Trump can reverse the tariffs tomorrow. Or a court could freeze them if it rules trump acted illegally.
But it does seem that they might be doing some serious insider trading on the market’s volatility. Its funny that until 2024 this was illegal. But the supreme court wanted this. So here we are.
Even if he would reverse the tariffs, the rest of the world is tired of this shit! The US showed that they are no reliable partner and always 4 years away from a possible circus.
I think the reason it’s not 100% is that Trump could say “lol jk guys I’m not actually going to destroy the world economy to own the libs” or Congress could theoretically stop it (lol) but yeah I think it’s probably optimistic because even if the tariffs don’t go into effect the chaos caused by them is already happening. I work in chemical manufacturing and the outlook seems very bleak, but most of my coworkers are Trumpists so they’re just in denial about how bad it’s going to be while management is tiptoeing around the fact that they’re already laying people off because of Trump’s expected antics.
There’s a ‘Recession this year?’ market on kalshi that is somehow also giving about 60% odds. I’m feeling good about my $20 bet.
Traditional wisdom says bonds go up when stocks go down, but I don’t even trust T bills right now. Those are the most reliable security there is. Well, were.