I see what you’re saying, but I’m not sure that would be the case.

Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against an oppressive invading country and I don’t know (emphasis on I don’t know) that they have more foreign fighters than Russia (mostly North Korea, but also Cuba, Africa, etc.).

I do know Ukraine has some foreign legions(?) with a significant number of Columbians and Iraq/Afghanistan war veterans from multiple countries, along with anti-Putin Russians and Belarusian forces.

Ukraine’s low numbers (my understanding of their numbers) could be due to financial and logistical (training and supplies/equipment) constraints though.

I would say it’s a good thing that Russian fighters are doing so for the money, because once the money dries up they will stop showing up.

I believe we are seeing two things recently. The first is a drop of financially motivated fighters from Russia (reasoning: drop in signing bonuses, ex. 3M to 400k in some oblasts). The second is a downward spiral of their economy (civilian industries cutting hours and 40%(?) of their oil refining capacity currently diminished), coupled with the emptying of their soverign fund (originally 150B, now less than 40B(?)).

To me it looks like they are running out of funds and financial motivated fighters.

That’s not to say they will run out of fighters. I believe they recently or are in the process of allowing their “active reserve” to be called up to serve in Ukraine. If I recall correctly, their “active reserve” was 2M personnel. The analysis I read (Institute of War?) was that Russia wouldn’t call them all at once, but do a rolling callup to sustain fighting and potentially release the mobilized soldiers from 2023(?). This would allow them to claim a “volunteer” only force and still have enough fighters while not paying high signup bonuses (potentially).

However, everyone who wanted to volunteer for “patriot” reasons has already done so at this point. They have or in the process of using up all their financially motivated options. Therefore, I expect their remaining “active reserve” will not be motivated and calling them up would increase unrest in Russia.

Will the unrest be enough to topple Putin? No idea. There seems to be quite a few factors pushing against him resently that could cause a coup/revolutionary moment. Gasoline shortage, massive inflation, economic downward spiral, Ukrainian drones being able to hit deep into Russia, Trump “possibly” helping Ukraine, consumer bank run on cash, etc.

If I had to guess, I would say it would happen around New Years time. My understanding is that New Years is a big celebration in Russian culture (equivalent to a combined Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years rolled into one) and that Russians spend big on that holiday. So, I suspect, that if a popular uprising happens it will happen around then.

As others have said, Solarpunk and Blahaj both seem like good options for you. You may want to consider their piefed instances, if that’s something you are interested in.

I see what your saying better now and agree interaction of variables is important.

I believe there is a graph that has number of drones and missiles fired by Russia and the Ukrainian interception rate of those missiles. My recollection is that the number of missiles fired varies quite a bit month to month, but that inception rate took a nose dive recently.

I don’t think Russian missile barrages are the cause of the interceptor hit rate change, but do not have any source to back that up.

In my view, that would either be due to the missile trajectory upgrade or if Ukraine ran out of interceptor missiles. I do not know if they are out of interceptor missiles or have changed their firing rate.

I forget my source (perhaps a recent Perun yt video), but the interception rate change is due to changes in Russian missile trajectory in the terminal phase.

Previously, Russian missiles followed an arc trajectory to hit their target and were comparatively easy to intercept because it’s path until reaching it’s target was predictable (an arc).

Now, Russian missiles follow an arc toward target A and then when they are over target B (real target) they enter a steep dive to hit target B.

Hopefully that was understandable and helpful.

Edit: changed potential source as a new Perun video came out today, and it’s not my source.

That was very helpful way of reframing the discussion. Thank you.

Not seeing the text. Ecosia browser in Android.

The internals defenitively look better and you removed Belarus, so that’s good.

Did you intend to leave out the words? Without them the big yellow outer circle seems off/unnecessary.

My guess is that you have significantly exhausted the extent of your interests and common interactions. It happens.

That’s to say, for example, you’ve read, seen, discussed, etc. almost every sci-fi series in existence. There’s some you haven’t interacted with but you would have hit the new ones and all the significant older ones. In which case there’s really nothing left for you to consume besides minutiae/very small things (you ran the well dry).

The same can said for interactions with people. You’re having the same conversations you’ve had before. Sure some of the specific details change but the core remains the same.

If this at all sounds right, I’d suggest expanding your interests and social circle. For interests, I’d suggest something close to your current interests and look up the highest rated components of that interest to look into. Using the Sci-fi example, fantasy may be a good place to look and Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, Mistborn, etc. maybe be good places to start.

For people, expanding your social cycle can be tough. If you haven’t already you can try and pair an interest of yours with a group that focuses on that. Example could be RPG gaming and joining a Table Top RPG group. Another option is taking classes in a new interest. You’ll likely meet new people with a similar interest as you. Another option is volunteering. There’s lots of organizations or mutual aid societies out there that would welcome additional members. That’ll give you new people to talk to while helping others (win-win).

Regardless, best of luck with everything :)

Relevant Section, with example implementation:

With an annual budget of roughly $2 million, the program saves Eugene $14 million annually in ambulance trips and emergency room costs, plus an estimated $8.5 million in public safety costs—and has successfully diverted thousands from the criminal legal system. Of the estimated 17,700 calls CAHOOTS responded to in 2019, teams requested police backup only 311 times.

311/17700=~1.75%

Article Text Below:

What Happens When We Send Mental Health Providers Instead Of Police

For Daniel Prude, Patrick Warren Sr., and Ricardo Muñoz, 911 calls led to tragedy. They are three of at least 97 people killed just last year after police responded to reports of someone “behaving erratically or having a mental health crisis.”

Like Prude, Warren Sr., and Muñoz, nearly a quarter of the more than 6,000 people fatally shot by police since 2015 were experiencing a mental health crisis. Today, a person having a mental health crisis is more likely to encounter law enforcement than they are to get any medical support or treatment, making jails the largest behavioral health facilities in the country. Chicago’s Cook County Jail, the Los Angeles County Jail, and New York’s Rikers Island jail complex each hold more people with serious mental health conditions than any dedicated treatment facility in the country.

Numerous deadly encounters prove that police are ill-equipped to safely and effectively serve people experiencing mental health crises, yet police have been the default first responders for a range of social issues. And as with so many aspects of our broken criminal legal system, Black people become victims in disproportionate numbers. A study published in January 2021 found that police are more likely to shoot and kill Black men who exhibit mental health conditions than white men who display similar behaviors.

Advocates across the country have called for officials to develop services that curb police involvement in mental health crises, and community organizations have led the way. Approaches vary, but a growing number of cities are starting programs that rely on first responders who aren’t police, such as counselors or social workers, to respond to calls that involve mental health crises and substance use.

Eugene, Oregon, is home to one of the oldest such civilian response programs in the country, launched in 1989. The Crisis Assistance Helping Out on the Streets (CAHOOTS) program, operated by Eugene’s White Bird Clinic, pairs a medic with a crisis worker to respond to 911 and non-emergency calls involving mental health, homelessness, and substance use. The teams are trained to provide crisis intervention, counseling, basic emergency medical care, transportation, and referrals to services.

With an annual budget of roughly $2 million, the program saves Eugene $14 million annually in ambulance trips and emergency room costs, plus an estimated $8.5 million in public safety costs—and has successfully diverted thousands from the criminal legal system. Of the estimated 17,700 calls CAHOOTS responded to in 2019, teams requested police backup only 311 times.

The program has served as a model for places like Denver and Olympia, Washington, with many other cities looking to create their own programs. Of course, every community is different, so a one-size-fits-all approach will not work. Eugene, for example, is more than 80 percent white. White Bird Clinic Director of Consulting Tim Black recognizes that residents have a “healthy enough relationship” with police, so they may feel more comfortable calling 911 for crisis response incidents than people who live in communities that are overpoliced.

Denver’s Support Team Assisted Response (STAR) program, which launched as a pilot in June 2020, similarly sends health care workers to respond to incidents related to mental health, poverty, homelessness, and substance use. As of May 2021, STAR had successfully responded to 1,323 calls, none of which resulted in injury, arrest, or a request for police backup. Denver’s police chief has said the program “saves lives” and “prevents tragedies.”

But the program faces criticism from community members and advocates, who have said that responses have been “clinical” and that responders often can’t relate personally to the people they serve. STAR is staffed by social workers who are predominantly white, and advocates envision a community-driven program that includes “providers who share lived experiences and identities with Denver’s diverse population.”

Polling shows that Democrats, independents, and Republicans alike support programs that replace police with trained experts in situations involving behavioral or mental health crises. But residents, community organizations, behavioral health professionals, and others need to be involved in the creation and implementation of any crisis response program. And stakeholders need to ensure that these programs don’t perpetuate inequities based on who they serve, which calls get diverted, and how first responders work to resolve a situation.

With American Rescue Plan (ARP) funding, local governments have an opportunity to make real investments in health-first approaches. Denver has already committed to using ARP dollars to enable an expansion of STAR, and other cities—including Charlotte, Long Beach, Phoenix, and San Francisco—are funding similar programs through ARP. Cities need to create and implement programs that actually promote public safety—and save lives.