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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: August 14th, 2023

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  • You’re wrong, because you’re either lying or have been lied to about the voter ID measures.

    The question has always been: if I don’t have an ID, can I still vote? IDs make it much easier to prove eligibility to vote, but is there a backup plan, a safety valve, for people who don’t have an ID on election day?

    If you want to buy alcohol, there are legal ways to acquire alcohol without an ID, if you are actually of legal drinking age.

    If you want to fly on an airplane, there are ways to get past TSA and get on an airplane without an ID. TSA only recently started charging a fee for this, but there’s always been a safety valve for people who want to fly but don’t have an ID on them. Otherwise, what would someone have to do if they were on vacation, lost their wallet, and wanted to come home?

    Oh, and the actual proposal for the shopper card at the NYC grocery store won’t actually require proof of identity or proof of residency. So if the proposed voter ID laws were going to be equally loose, I don’t think there would be any opposition to a system by which a person who doesn’t have an ID could get one that day, at the polling site, in order to vote that day.


  • It’s worth reading the underlying paper, here.

    Figure 3 has an interactive chart showing both stats (the traditional measure and the new metric under discussion), and visually shows the spread, by age, across all age groups. (If you’re on a phone you can pull the chart up full screen to be able to see y axis lines.)

    Some of the discussion around there is interesting, too:

    The owner-occupancy rate for households headed by adults under age 35 was 37 percent in 2024. Using the HPOP, which accounts for co-residents and dorm dwellers, we find a substantially lower number: only 22 percent of adults under 35 own their homes.

    Figure 6 gives state by state data and shows the actual spread between the two metrics for each state, so you can see big state differences, too.


  • The commonly reported statistic asks, what percentage of adults live in homes owned by a resident, rather than rent? That’s been steady in the mid-60 percentages for decades.

    This new paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis offers another statistic for consideration: the ratio of homeowners to the adult population.

    The main categories of people who differ in this proposed methodology:

    • People who live in group home settings that do not ordinarily count as renters, like dorms, nursing homes, and prisons, are now included in the denominator (and not considered homeowners). Previously, these didn’t count towards the ratio in either the numerator or denominator.
    • Adult family members of homeowners who do not pay rent (adult children, parents of an owner, etc.), or adult roommates paying for a room. This turns out to be about 13.9% of the population.

    Most importantly, these are unevenly distributed by geographical region, age, other demographics. Not all of these are bad (nothing wrong with multi-generation living arrangements), but they can show trends across time or place, and pick up less noticeable trends in people’s living situations more broadly.


  • I’ve been accused of being a centrist, despite basically being to the left of everyone in American politics, and I think it’s because people tend to over-weight the economic left/right spectrum (or project other non-economic issues onto the left/right spectrum), and not place enough effort into thinking through:

    • Ideological purity versus pragmatic deal-making.
    • Actual governance skill, kinda a technocratic versus populist view.
    • When and where it’s appropriate to break the law to accomplish goals, like the lawfu-to-chaotic alignment in the D&D memes.

    None of that is left/right or centrist in itself, but my positions (pragmatic, technocratic, lawful) sometimes put me at odds with other voices on the left.

    Other criteria that don’t map onto left/right include authenticity, consistency/predictability, coherence across issues, and plain old network connections, and political effectiveness (influencing the public and other politicians to follow your lead on issues).

    Mamdani is awesome because he exudes authenticity (like, I’m not a Knicks fan but he can give a great mayor’s speech for his favorite team winning), gets things done (actual stuff around city governance, like snow shoveling), and seems to know how to get policy passed (working with Hochul to get some big ticket legislation on taxing the rich accomplished, even if it will contain some compromises). He is, in other words, an effective politician. We need more people like him scattered throughout different jurisdictions.

    I will gladly support a coalition of centrists and leftists to move things to the left, especially if they can flank the current Republican party on plain old competence and honesty/fairness in governance.


  • I would be 100% in favor of an amendment that clearly spells out that the rights enumerated in the Constitution are limited to actual humans, and any corporation or other group of people are not entitled to any more inherent rights than the humans who make up the corporation are entitled to collectively.

    How does that change the current law, though?

    I’d be in favor of a rule that explains that organizing into associations doesn’t change the rights of the individuals who form the association, but also that the association would only have rights that relate to the actual purpose of forming the association in the first place (whether it’s a corporation, LLC, partnership, joint venture, other unincorporated associations).

    So a church gets religious freedom. But a sandwich shop does not. A newspaper gets freedom of speech and may exercise editorial discretion on what goes on its pages. A telephone company does not, and cannot discriminate against the viewpoints expressed over its phone lines.

    There are trickier issues: can a government ban halal slaughter, and would a Muslim-owned butcher shop be entitled to a religious exemption (if, assuming, individuals were granted that exemption)? I’d argue you have to look to the nature of the business or organization to determine whether that particular right applies to that organization, so the butcher shop can invoke the religion of the human butcher, and possibly even the human customers who want to buy halal meat.

    But the framework makes sense to me, and is closely related to the principle of organizational standing, where something like a nonprofit association of apple growers can sue on behalf of apple grower rights, despite not being an organization that actually directly grows apples. That’s how corporate rights should work: look to the reason for incorporating and the nature of the organization, and how it relates to the nature of the right at issue.






  • A very important point is that the judge can’t just reject the deal and let Alex Jones continue forward. The whole reason why the licensing deal is coming to fruition now (instead of in 2024 when he first lost control, or after all the appeals are exhausted) is because this middle ground became untenable: Alex Jones can’t afford the studio’s rent and the creditors are going to seize all the physical assets if they’re not being actively used to run a profitable business to preserve the status quo.

    If the status quo is no longer an option, the court will have to order that SOMEthing happen.



  • This is the best article I’ve found, and it’s more recent than the NYT article you’ve posted:

    https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/the-onions-infowars-takeover-follows-complicated-legal-journey

    I still find dedicated legal reporting to be better than general reporting. And this is a complicated history touching on a lot of different areas of the law.

    But the key fact here is that Alex Jones was allowed to keep control over the business assets while his appeals are pending, but has run out of money and cannot continue running his own business. At that point, the receiver overseeing things (where Alex Jones can run the business but can’t transfer assets out or pay anything not directly related to running the business) saw that things had changed enough that he needed to keep the business assets valuable, and that Alex Jones himself couldn’t.

    So this licensing deal is a way to keep the assets valuable: keep paying rent on the studio itself, keep all the broadcasting and recording equipment under one roof, keep all the unexpired contracts.

    If Alex Jones can’t come up with a plan to actually pay the rent and keep all the stuff, the court is basically going to have no choice but to agree that there’s no way to keep things as they are while the appeals wind through the system, and a temporary licensing agreement is the best option until the appeals go through.

    Most of the reporting doesn’t seem to appreciate that Jones’ prospects of blocking this in the courts is dependent on a practical hurdle, not just a legal one: he can’t afford to keep it. That’s what’s changed since December 2024 when The Onion’s first attempt to buy this stuff was blocked (by another federal bankruptcy court, with a different judge than this state court judge overseeing the receiver).




  • I don’t agree with the implicit assumption that the people who are bullied have to be actual nerds/geeks. People get bullied for being different, whatever that may be, and Elon strikes me as a real weirdo.

    And of course that assumes a lack of charisma, which of course describes Elon. Charismatic weirdos can actually set trends to follow, whereas uncharismatic weirdos tend to become social pariahs.





  • It’s cheaper to pay cash than use insurance.

    Yes, for most people, in most years. But the cost of health care tends to be very, very unevenly distributed. A person might see medical bills of less than $1000 per year for 20 years and then get a single $1,000,000 year. So at that point, it’s an annualized cost of $50,000 per year, even if most years it’s about $1,000. Some estimates are that 10-30% of all medical spending in the US is in the last year of life.

    Many believe that because of this distribution, health insurance should primarily be a catastrophic care model where most people pay a premium that doesn’t cover anything for the first few thousand, then covers a percentage of the cost up to the out of pocket maximum of like $15,000 or so for a family, but does cover everything after that. For a typical household, being able to predict annual healthcare expenses for the entire year is very useful.

    And personally, I’m pretty sympathetic to this catastrophic care model as a short term transition to an all payer model that looks like Switzerland’s system (private insurance, private providers, mandatory coverage, strict price controls, and subsidies for anyone who can’t afford the normal premiums).