Tuesday is election day in the US so I’m putting up the sticky a couple of days early so folks can get ready for the big ones to watch.
The US has a couple of different kinds of elections:
The Presidential election - Every 4 years, last one was 2024, next one is 2028. Also generally has a primary earlier in the year followed by the general election in November.
Mid-Term elections - Even numbered years that aren’t Presedential are Mid-Terms, State and Local issues, along with every congressperson and 1/3rd of the Senate. Next one is 2026.
Off-Year elections - You are here. State and local elections, Governors, Mayors, things like that.
There are the odd “Special Elections” too for when someone dies or is replaced, but that doesn’t apply here.
So what are we all watching this week? Feel free to namedrop your favorites in the comments, but here are some big ones:
- New York City Mayor - Looks like Mamdani is the walk away favorite here, but we’ll see!
Live Results:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-new-york-city-2025-mayoral-election
Edit 40% of the vote is in, Mamdani up by 10, winning every borough except Staten Island. #3 in Staten Island.
MSNBC now calling it for Mamdani!
Zohran Mamdani - Dem - 782,403 - 50.0%
Andrew Cuomo - I - 646,951 - 41.4%
Curtis Sliwa - GOP - 120,476 - 7.7%
Total Write-ins - 4,720 - 0.3%
Eric Adams* - I - 4,310 - 0.3%
Irene Estrada - Con - 1,891 - 0.1%
Jim Walden - I - 1,680 - 0.1%
Joseph Hernandez - I - 914 - 0.06%
- California Prop 50 - This is the one that would re-district California to eliminate Republican House seats, a response to Texas and other states doing the same to eliminate Democratic seats.
Edit Polls JUST closed, like 2 minutes ago, races is already called in favor of Prop 50.
“The race was called before any votes were reported, which often means the call was based on polls and other data.”
64% counted, not even close:
Yes - 64.6% - 4,444,629
No - 35.4% - 2,433,216
Live Results:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-california-2025-election-on-proposition-50
- Virginia Governor election - Democratic candidate Spanberger is the favorite, State Attorney General is much tighter. Thought to be one of the races that will be a referendum on Trump.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/virginia-2025-spanberger-leads/
Live Results:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-virginia-2025-gubernatorial-election
Edit Spanberger won!
Abigail Spanberger - Dem - 1,227,888 - 55.3%
Winsome Earle-Sears - GOP - 987,939 - 44.5%
Total Write-ins - 4,566 - 0.2%
Lt. Governor also went to the Democrat, Attorney General too close to call.
- New Jersey Governor election - Much tighter than Virginia. Like Virginia, this is thought to be a referendum on Trump, Republican Jack Ciattarelli has the Trump endorsement. Neither side seems to be walking away with it at this point.
Live Results:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-new-jersey-2025-gubernatorial-election
Edit With 60% of the vote in, race called for Sherrill, up 14 points over Ciattarelli.
- Pennsylvania Supreme Court election.
Edit Voters look to be keeping all 3 Democratic candidates by an 80/20 margin, but only 16% of the vote is counted.
- Texas 18 Congressional District
Live Results:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-updates-election-day-2025
52% of the vote counted and three separate Democrats are polling ahead of the Republican? In TEXAS?
Oh… HOUSTON… that tracks.
Christian Menefee - Dem - 12,688 - 32.5%
Amanda Edwards - Dem - 9,836 - 25.2%
Jolanda Jones - Dem - 7,375 - 18.9%
Carmen Montiel - GOP - 2,534 - 6.5%
Isaiah Martin - Dem - 1,837 - 4.7%
Virginia Dem won and looks like Sherrill is gonna win NJ.
GOP getting stomped.
School board elections are about all I’ve got for this round, but I cast my vote to oust as many of the anti-CRT, anti-mask people as possible.
When can we expect results from the NY mayoral race?
Polls close at 8 PM local time, so 5 PM Pacific!
Thanks!
I was wrong, NORMALLY polls close at 8 PM, I’m told now 9 PM. So in 3 minutes!
Edit Mamdani up by 10 city wide, winning every borough except Staten Island.
I’m going to be following the Majority Report Live Stream.
Also, I think Mamdani will be making an appearance on their show tomorrow, so tune in. Just call it intuition as to how I might know.
I’m with a lot of Californians reluctantly voting on Prop 50. It’s a backslide for democracy but when the whole county is avalanche levels of backsliding, it seems unavoidable. At least the language emphasizes temporary (though it still has lasting impacts as it messes up incumbent advantage, not that I like that either).
I just wish Gavin wasn’t growing in popularity as he has been over these moves, he’s such a smug rich asshole kind of lib. We need what NYCs been getting with progressive minded folks.
Same, when the rachet effect going on has been so effective on the other side it no longer behooves us to “be better” than to flip the direction and do the same by the same methods. Righteousness is all well and good until it becomes part of your opponents strategy to take advantage of you.
I’m in Saint Paul, Minnesota. We have a mayoral race with ranked choice voting! Hoping for a slightly more progressive candidate to win, but Carter hasn’t been awful.
I didn’t know they had ranked choice voting anywhere in America
Alaska has apparently been doing RC for yeeears (but not for regional/federal elections).
Alaska. If Sarah Palin’s state can do it, we’re kinda out of excuses.
Oregon.
The US is really 50 democracies in a trench coat.
One might argue this is very Swiss (decentralized) of them. But then, money clouds everything.
A lot of the problems are because the US is a horrible mix of centralized and decentralized systems with no real way balance anymore. Reminder at the time of the USs creation the oldest Republic was fucking Venice meaning that they were treading waters not treaded since antiquity, so it has a lot of beta testing issues that have held on well into the full version. Upside is that if shit goes badly enough with the feds the states can theoretically correct for it like the Holy Roman Empire.
I like your optimism. But what exactly did the HRE fix?
In practice not much, but from a regionalist perspective it was actually pretty good. A heavily decentralized system that was basically stable enough to last hundreds of years, also it rarely was expansionist as an entity with it only really expanding when the crusaders got itchy or later on when it developed strong enough powers internally.
Wasn’t saying it fixed anything just using it as a prime example of a heavily decentralized state that more or less operated for centuries.
It’s slowly catching on.
Hope it goes better for you guys than our ranked choice election did. A lot of people saw the ranked grid and just noped out!
We’ve got a big one here in Seattle with both mayor and attorney general being up for grabs. It’s looking so far like the far more progressive (but not especially experienced) candidate will win for mayor. We’ll see soon.
NJ reporting here. Obligatory fuck Jack Ciattarelli.
Ours was super boring. A 2020 property tax measure to fund local parks is expiring. It was $0.80 per $1,000 of assessed property value.
The new one to replace it is $1.40 per $1,000 and locals are losing their goddamn minds over it!
“ZOMG! MY PROPERTY TAXES ARE GOING UP 75%!!!”
No, the portion that funds parks is going up 75%, your property tax is likely going up $9 to $12 bucks a month.
Our taxes are some of the highest in the country and the city has a poor track record of accountability and timely disclosure. They didn’t give us an option to maintain current funding (adjusted for inflation); instead they asked for nearly double and made no attempt to justify the increase beyond fear mongering about parks. If it fails there’s still time for them to try again with a budget comparable to today. I’m into both socialism and accountability.
The trick with parks funding is we took a one-two punch.
- Because it’s based on property taxes, we’re taking it in the shorts on commercial property values. Seriously, you look at Big Pink which sold for $45 million which SOUNDS like a lot until you learn the previous value was $372 million…
- Inflation and Trump’s tarriffs are boosting construction costs on EVERYTHING.
https://cmicglobal.com/resources/article/The-Full-Impact-of-Tariffs-on-Construction-in-2025
So, going with the old parks tax, less money was coming in because of devalued property, and that money doesn’t go as far because of inflation and tarriffs. 😟
Thanks for the links. Apologies in advance for the long comment.
The increase is so high that it’s basically calculated as if you had removed commercial property taxes entirely.
The levy is paying for continuity of existing services: parks maintenance (tree planting and timing, garbage cleanup) and amenities like summer camps, swimming lessons, etc. They basically don’t devote any significant part of their funding to facility maintenance, which is why many of the hard tops and other things are in poor condition.
I guarantee you that even if this levy passes they will come back to voters down the road with a levy specifically for rebuilding park facilities.
The following gets a little into my philosophy on taxation, but in general I’m OK with paying for services (including increases) so long as outcomes are measured and city leaders hold themselves accountable to the public.
Partly I think parks funding is structured poorly, and partly that something must be done at the municipal level. The city keeps building parks they don’t have to account for in the budget and that the parks service can’t properly maintain at current funding levels. This and (as you noted) tax compression are the primary drivers for the increase.
I’m sympathetic to tax compression. But parks need to be paid for out of the general fund, not through levies. That way it forces the city to either build fewer parks or (ideally) properly fund parks through tax revenues. Levies should be used for extraordinary things, not regular operating budget. That they go this route is basically to work around property tax increase limits.
They should make the case to change the law and forgo levies in favor of the tax changes that are more representative of what the city actually needs to operate. To do that they should strive to become a model of transparency and accountability for the money they already receive, including publishing outcomes for their programs and special taxes, and redirecting funding where positive outcomes cannot be shown. This means, for example, increasing funding for auditors and creating statutory requirements around this kind of transparency.
Oh, they will DEFINITELY come back in 5 years… IIRC these bonds only last 5 years, the last one passed in 2020 with expiration this year.
But here’s the thing, if you read the messure, this bond is 1/2 the parks budget. So if it doesn’t pass, there will be a dramatic reduction in service.
https://www.portland.gov/parks/parks-levy-2025
“If a new levy is not approved, the Parks operating budget would be reduced by approximately half, resulting in fewer programs and services.”
I’m super curious about Mamdani winning and living up to any of his promises.
Yeah, he’s gonna get blocked on a lot, but if he accomplishes one thing on the list, he’ll be ahead of the game. The bar for actually leading is just so low, he can only succeed.
Like most political promises, I don’t see how he could do 1/2 of what he wants to do. I’d still like to see him try!
I mean the point is that they try, and its a stark contrast with Republicans.
As horrendous, miserable, inhumane and abhorrent as their promises are, the do try and make good on them. I think Democrats consistent refusal to even try on theirs really cuts against them.
People hold democrats to all their promises real or imagined and let progressives lie through their teeth to get voted in.
How dare you uphold the promises they made! Fucking commies, making politicians keep their promises!
I don’t think you understood my point there.
I don’t know they are necessarily lying, I think that what they want to do comes from an honest place, it’s just that once elected, they realize they either don’t have that power or they’re actively blocked from doing it.
Looking at Mamdani specifically, he wants city run grocery stores. LOL. I feel safe in saying that’s a child-like pipe dream, but I still want to see him try. There’s like a 4% chance it could work, but hey, I’m saying there’s a chance! 😉
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/26/mamdani-city-run-grocery-store-plan-criticized-as-unrealistic.html
Oh man bring a realist like that is going to be super unpopular.
I vote to remove Donald Trump
Vote and volunteer best you can folks.
It’s a patriotic duty.
