*In an opinion poll
I mean lets not confuse an opinion poll with the truth. These things regularly get things a couple points off. In fact that’s the norm.
AfD is using fascist manipulation using propaganda (always putting immigrants and immigrant attacks in the spotlight) to gain power and discriminate immigrants even more, causing more retaliation which in turn makes people give the AfD even more power.
In a tolerant society we should not be tolerant of such intolerance.
And stil the state refuses to ban them, refuses to arrest and sentence their leaders.
It will be Weimar 2.0 with liberals being either too incompetent or too unwilling to stop fascism.
Fascism is not stopped at the podium or in parliament. It is stopped with bullets and bombs. The longer you wait the more bullets and bombs it will take and the more lives it will cost. We need a new, this time thorough, denazification.
But starting and organizing a violent opposition seem like so much effort. And I really have to finish some shows I’ve been watching.
Someone explain, are these the Nazis?
It is the party all the fascists vote on.
Should tell you enough.
Anything from national conservatives to common reactionaries, Völkische and neo-nazis and neo-fascists.
they are the neo-Nazis
Fuck
Germany should have actually denazified instead of the joke they did. Also should have reunited the two germanys instead of what happened which was basically a west German conquest of east Germany contributing greatly to its impoverershment.
Honest question, what was wrong with the denazification that was carried out? Did they have any historical example to compare to?
Many of those aren’t real votes but “protest” support. Very dumb imo. They’re hoping its a wakeup to the other parties but it really just emboldens the afd.
Please look at the US and what’s happening here right now.
A significant portion of Trump’s voters in 2016 were protest anti-establishment voters and they’ve been converted into full on Fascist voters in the 8 years since then.
Nah I don’t buy it. Nazis voting for nazis know what they are doing. AfDs plan is clear, like project 2025 was and their voters like what they see and should be treated and handled accordingly.
Okay well in German and I know some of these idiots. It’s true. Of course some are literally Nazis. You see the same thing in the US as well. Don’t take my reply as defending these people.
Are they dumber than the parties that didn’t get the message?
Can confirm they’re generally quite dumb.
Is the proper response: Well shit.
This is why I keep telling people we are fucked by focusing in increasing military power in europe even if it appears and is obviously needed. We are going to put all the power at the hands of insane lunatics ready to wage war and put people in ovens.
It’s happening in all countries in Europe. I think in mine we’ll have elections next month or something like that and the extreme right is at 2nd or 3rd position ready to take first or will join hands with another to win. It was so close already last time. No matter how many crimes all their members do and show up in the news every week.
It’s what the people want. Most people everywhere are ok and want homicidal narcissist and sociopathic people in charge of them.
These polls don’t matter much. Next major election in Germany is in 2029.I’d argue these assholes didn’t win the battle just yet. Anti lobby work, Investments in military power, education and quality of life for people are just some of the things to convince more people. Four years is plenty.
If the government doesn’t fall like it does here regularly 😮💨
Did you not realize that they performed incredibly well in the elections? Social media is how they will overthrow the last remaining democracies. France, UK and Canada are next. All the young folks are increasingly more conservative and within 2-6 years, it’s going to be game over.
We really should stop using the term “conservative” for what the self proclaimed “conservative” parties are doing. Because they don’t conserve anything. They do the exact opposite. They exploit and destroy.
I don’t disagree, but when one part of society uses word A and the other part uses word B that would only further increase polarization, which already is a serious problem. I think it’d be better it we continue using the name they use for themselves, but point out what a weird name it is for them. So we could tell them for example that we find it strange they consider themselves “conservative” parties because they don’t conserve anything. They do the exact opposite. They exploit and destroy.
The problem is that more simple minded people who are actually conservative, as they want to conserve society as it is, will easily fall for the propaganda and vote for a party that is out to destroy what they want to conserve.
The self proclaimed standing of a party is part of its propaganda. Unfortunately the media are complicit with the parties on perpetuating their propaganda, by calling parties by their chosen adjectives, rather than by what would be more fitting. Conservatives should rather be called “Destructives”, and in many countries, “Social Democrats” are rather Neoliberals, for they have long sold out social democracy to the highest bidder and now follow an extremist free market ideology, their only remaining difference to the “Conservatives” being not wanting to return to societal norms from 60 years ago.
The problem is that more simple minded people who are actually conservative, as they want to conserve society as it is, will easily fall for the propaganda and vote for a party that is out to destroy what they want to conserve.
The real problem is that “conserve society as it is” was always a lie, unless the “as it is” you’re talking about happened to be monarchy. Conservatism, as an ideology, was founded in support of monarchism. A society run by an aristocratic elite has always been the thing they’re trying to conserve.
Populist intentionally choose words that attract potential voters, they will continue to do that. But calling them out for not being real conservatives because they act different is definitely helpful.
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted, maybe people just don’t like to hear it. You’re not wrong.
To add, these people generally have more kids, and raise them to be conservative. It’s depressing. It might take some severe hardship on people to shift left again? Not sure what that is, hopefully not another world War.
In phone polls 4 years before the next election…
Dont get me wrong, this sucks, but its not what the germans actually voted for.
But they already performed very well in the last election.
Still shows you something you can’t see by asking your neighbours, colleagues and family. But I agree it doesn’t matter in a real way.
Plus two percent, a difference of one percent to second place and an error margin of two point five percent. Congrats.
Besides that, I really start to hate these reports. Weekly updates on the Sonntagsfrage are utterly lacking substance, fearmongering (to left leaning people) and reassurance (to AfD voters). Everything we do not need.
Also, the heads of most of the polling institutes are openly right leaning.
Should the left not be worried?
About a election in 4 years? Not really. At least not yet. This isn‘t news worthy in my opinion because it doesn‘t tell you anything about what the country will look like in 4 years.
If the current government is even willing and able to serve their term to its end (the previous one didn’t), and actually improve the situation enough so people stop running after some rat catchers with a simple lie as the supposed solution.
But the Left and Greens are in opposition — this is a chance. Hopefully they are able to mobilise as well in the coming years.
Socially, the Greens stand exactly where the “Social Democrats” stand. They co-authored the unprecedented social cutbacks of the Schröder era, which brought Germany where it is today. They are a party of privileged academics who are fine with easing their ecological conscience on the backs of people with lower income. And the Left still has Putin bootlicker vibes (they call it “peace”), even though the worst Putin bootlickers left them to form their own party.
Where did I say that? How the fuck do you come up with that being the conclusion of my comment?
Calm down, you could have just said “yes the left should be worried but no need to panic” and all would be well.
I’m not calming down. This dumb shit happens just far too often lately. I have no idea, why people insinuate things others never said and burn that strawman down, but I’m getting too tired and more and more pissed off by it, to the point where I wonder if it’s even worth it or I should rather stop discussing.
Shit’s annoying AF.
You should stop discussing because what you call a straw man is a perfectly reasonable interpretation of your comment. If you don’t want it to be open to interpretation, you should be more clear, rather than get mad at people taking one of the reasonable interpretations. An additional sentence at the end of that comment like “That said, the left should be worried.” would likely have been enough.
About as reasonable an interpretation as asking you if you mean humans shouldn’t ever feel emotions by saying “Calm down”.
I really start to hate these reports. Weekly updates on the Sonntagsfrage are utterly lacking substance, fearmongering (to left leaning people) and reassurance (to AfD voters). Everything we do not need.
There?
So in your stupid brain “Not A” is automatically and without any alternatives to equivocate with “the utterly illogical opposite to A”?
How on earth is “push the breaks on fearmongering” equal to “Na, don’t worry”???
- Fear mongering is making people worried.
- You are against this report for doing this to leftists, hence you are against making leftist people worried.
?
You can be against news fearmongering a certain group and also believe the fear this group has is valid. In this case, the leftist could for example be already worried by the actual situation and not because of the fearmongering.
No for fucks sake. Fearmongering is the irrational exaggeration of a worrisome situation to a degree that incites fear (hence the term fearmongering) and panic.
So what irrational fears are promoted about the AdF getting into power and achieving greater public support?
Or is it irrational to think the most popular party in Germany could ever win?
Very confusing, I’m so stupid after all.
Bitte achte auf deine Ausdrucksweise, solche Gossensprache wollen wir hier nicht.
David Kriesel is amazing! Didn’t know about this. Very useful.
Yes, he’s great data scientist. He has more stuff on his webpage, e.g. bias analysis of the different polling institutes, be sure to check it out if you like!
So CDU is just AfD in disguise…
Take care of the nazi problem before they take care of you. You already know how that works. Stop allowing them to broadcast nazi propaganda as if it was news.
Everybody in Germany. Please talk to family members that you don’t talk to about how this is dangerous to you. I know I have these in my family that I should invest in instead of always talking to the closest ones. Also make sure to beat them with genuine questions that break open their confidence in the reasoning with the socratic way (epistemology)
- What? Belief.
- Why? Reason
- How? Method for Proof
Or
- Identify Persuasion
- Question “What is it actually”, definition –In between ask for scale 1-10 how confident into the topic are you and importance queries
- Why do you believe that?
- How could one determine whether this is really true? –In between the scale and importance queries
- Best argument for and strongest argument against?
- Reflect, i.e. repeat what has been said in your own words eighthly
It’s not about being well versed in the topic of conversation But good questions
Totally. Good one is showing genuinely curiosity on AfD solutions problems we face. Believe me I met some who could only name Migration when I asked, for example, about AfD solution for tenant issues and tenant protections.
As we have relatives in the USA a good one is also Trump and the republican regime. Talking Elon Musk endorsement of the AfD and their endorsement of Trump, whom the people here dislike as well. So I’m just telling them to catch up with our trusted relatives from the USA and how they’re doing with the current republican regime…
With some however it’s just so pointless to discuss in my opinion. Best to keep calling out the lack of serious solutions, stirring up of hatred and Climate change denial. There are enough cognitive dissonance, economy incorrect conclusions to call out.
The YouTube Video “Fascists will only waste your time” argues in-depth why arguing with them will not work. I can recommend watching, if y’all have time to spare!
edit: reworked comment
This!
The best strategy is to engage in genuine conversations.
Most people just label the unknowledgable as stupid and attempt to desperately convince them with a bombardment of facts and counter-arguments. Even worse is just calling them “Nazi” and leave it at that. This is futile with some people who have gone down too deep into the hate-train of social media. They will immediately mentally blockade what you’re saying and the cycle continues.
It’s way more effective to get into a friendly conversation and actually engage with what they are saying. Listen. Ask questions. Listen. Ask questions. Understand why they believe what they believe. Be open to their arguments, however rediculous you might find them.
The most important thing you need to realize that it’s not their fault and they are not stupid! They are just the output of their environment. Everyone has emotions. And everyone deals with them differently. Everyone has their environment. And everyone sources their information from that environment. Everyone has parts of their lives where they are misinformed or less educated than an expert in the field. You too! Consequently, the way to change someone’s belief is to change their environment while understanding their emotional basis.
For what‘s worth it doesn‘t actually matter what potential voters would vote for each and every week when the next election is almost 4 years away. If anything, bold headlines like these only act as a self fulfilling prophecy and are blatant populism. Even a good government can‘t be super popular every single week and the sooner people realize that, the better for democracy. Though I won‘t hold my breath.
They just asked 1502 people by phone.
Yes. That’s a usual number for representative polling. Sometimes, they ask 1.000, sometimes 2.000. The other German polling institutes are doing the same.
So it is a poll of people who answer phone numbers they don’t recognize.
There’s a lot more than that, check the sampling methods on this Wikipedia article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)
They could, for example, ask for demographic information of the sampled population and weight that to the general population (let’s say that 50% of the people who answered are males from 70+; but they just represent 10% of the general population, then that answers are weighted to represent only 10% of the final results).
There’s a lot of theory behind sampling.
I’m sure it is probably fine. I’m just being flippant.
You can of course criticize that, but Forsa exists since 1984 and they are not known for publishing unrealistic polls. The polls are not the problem here. The people turning off their brains and voting for the far right are the problem.
That’s how statistics works. You take a sample and interpret the reality based on that sample. When you get a blood exam, you don’t need to check all the blood, you take a sample and based on that get a result.
I did Nazi that coming.
