- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
Russia has moved to classify key demographic statistics following a dramatic collapse in its birth rate, which has plunged to levels not seen since the late 18th or early 19th century, according to a leading Russian demographer.
For decades, Russia has been experiencing a plunging birth rate and population decline, which appears to have worsened amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine—with high casualty rates and men fleeing the country to avoid being conscripted to fight.
Projections estimate that Russia’s population will fall to about 132 million in the next two decades. The United Nations has predicted that in a worst-case scenario, by the start of the next century, Russia’s population could almost halve to 83 million.
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That’s not unique to Russia. Birth rates in developed nations have been plummeting across the board. The only reason the US was escaping it and hanging out around replacement was because of immigration, and, well, I don’t know if you’ve been keeping up with the news lately, but it seems like that’s going to change.
There’s lots of reasons driving demographic collapse, but I don’t think war is one of them. South Korea is usually heralded as the shining example of demographic collapse because their birth rate is the worst by far, and it generally seems to be the case that as economies becomes more “advanced”, women have less time and supports to focus on motherhood, and so just choose not to have kids. I put advanced in scare quotes because it seems to me that a truly advanced economy wouldn’t footgun itself with rapid demographic collapse. Not to say that the trend shouldn’t be towards a smaller population that will tax the Earth’s resources less, but the way to get there safely for civilization isn’t by falling off a cliff.
I have thought long and hard about having a kid. The only positives are some happy moments, my parents getting a grandbaby, and having someone to help make sure I don’t get taken advantage of when I’m old (I believe it is my financial responsibility to plan for myself but I know my brain may decline). Then I think of the negatives. The money, the loss of sleep, the loss of autonomy, the loss of time, it’s just all so so much. My life would get substantially worse.
Then I think about adopting someone older than a baby, and it’s an interesting idea, I don’t feel a need to spread my genes, but it’s the same thing. Then I think maybe adopt a teenager, it’s not as long of a commitment. But by this point it’s such a nasty equation of tradeoffs and I never want a child to be thought of that way. Plus, I really don’t think I have the heart or patience for adopting an older child.
So the only real thing I feel like I’m missing is having someone to make sure I’m not a victim of elder abuse. I’ll just try to keep getting you get friends and keep them close. I’m 33. My youngest close-ish friend is about 22. If I keep making young people my friends then hopefully if I’m in the nightmare scenario of mental decline and my spouse has passed that one of them can check up on me when we’re both old. That seems less shitty than adopting a child for that reason.
I blame Emmeline Pankhurst!
Well, not really.
“Allowing women to work” turned into “expecting women to work” and is now “two people’s wages are required to have a roof over your head”.
House price and rent caps would be marvellous, but no government is brave enough to shatter the teetering mess of economics that is built on it all. It should never have got to this point, and nobody wants to stop it getting worse. We need to bring the cost of housing down. Build more. Prevent prices rising. Hard caps on rent for basic properties. If not enough basic properties exist in an area, mandate they must be built instead of luxury expensive properties. Bring back council houses.
Aaah yes “Smakalka”
step 1: send your men to a pointless war
step 2: potential mothers realize their sons would only be meat in the meat grinder
step 3: nobody wants to have children anymore
step 4: be confused??Don’t forget removing any relief for people having kids. And dissolve their quality of life. That always goes over so well in completely diminishing any chance of population growth. Just ask Kim jung un
But if your child dies in a pointless war we can offer you a satchel of potatoes. Is good, yes?
In at least one woman’s case, Putin offered her an actual meat grinder. No joke.
step1.5; men fleeing to other countries to avoid war.
People who think Russia will last. Have no idea how bad drug abuse is in that country.
alcoholism is actually thier favorite pass time.
They’re so poor. They don’t even do heroin. They do crocodile.
will it get worse.
Don’t worry the fentanyl problem there is exploding. Thanks to China.
Sigh… putin is leting china leech russia. Putin is a sellout putting russians into misery with his obsession to increase russia territories and colonies.
I have it on good authority that fentanyl comes from Canada.
It’s global. Who the fuck wants to procreate in a world that’s about run out of water??
Uuuuuuuh what?!?!
Could you elaborate on running out of water?
Some parts of the globe is going to run out of water, some areas of the globe are about to get way too much of it. You know, climate change and all that.
Well, shit. Hopefully they’re fixing this!
Don’t worry, I check resin codes before recycling. Maybe I should remove the labels though, do you think it’ll help?
it’s this stupid doomerism that thinks that we will run out of drinkable water and start wars.
There’s good science that drinkable water is indeed in danger but the doomers ignore the fact that all of this argues about the price of water not the existance of drinkable water. It’ll be more expensive, but the market will create new technologies to filter and desalite water so eventually it’ll balance out.
In fact, this might be a net good as currently water treatment technology has no investments because water is so plentiful. This means poor regions where water is actually a problem now will get this technology and some balance will be restored to the world.
Great, the fucking market that’s already so good at properly distributing food so people don’t starve is also going to handle our water needs. I have no idea why anyone would be panicking about this.
How is this magic technology going to be freely implemented eveywhere and especially in the poorest parts of the world? You description of the mechanisms of invention and investing does not sound at all like how these things actually works in the world we are living in.
I’m genuinely confused by your question. The same way all technology is being delivered? The bigger research market the cheaper is the product and water treatment is no different.
Our top scientists are not solving water issues because there’s no market for it. African people who go 10km one way to the well don’t have the funding to fund this and in the grand scale of things this is such a small issue that it gains no attention and it’s easier to patch it with temporary solutions and existing inefficient technologies than to invent new stuff.
This is a very well known problem in the charity scene that applies way beyond this water issue and it’s not some secret issue that nobody knows about it.
I remember hearing that food engineering was going to solve the planet’s hunger problem. People are still starving, and the rich are becoming richer. Now I’m hearing about “water treatment technology”. Really? Rivers and lakes are drying up. There are unprecedented forest fires, floods, tornadoes, etc. Drinkable water will be more expensive?? WTF? What’s next?? We’re going to have to pay for breathable air?
According to this…: https://www.chunkerowaterplant.com/news/water-desalination-cost-per-gallon The cost of desalination per gallon of seawater is “approximately $0.005 to $0.01”
I would assume people would figure it’s cheaper to pay that cost than to fight wars over it. Most of the planet is covered in water. Like with food, these resource shortages are largely political. The hardest part is removing these power hungry parasites from power. Immense suffering is endured all because of these few billionaire pieces of radioactive shit.
That’s ignoring the environmental impact. You get brine on the other end that is basically wet salt iirc and if you release it in bulk you will fuck up the nearby environment
With sodium ion batteries becoming practical, I heard that this could actually become a side business for desalination plants to supply battery makers, but I don’t know how viable it is. Regardless, managing brine is still far less of an issue than fighting war over lack of water.
Plus you have high energy costs for desalination. Solar energy might help, but the desalination process is slow and needs to run 24 hrs a day to produce enough water efficiently.
You’re building a straw man that is unrelated to the issue at hand. Sure rich hoarding and political issues are bad but we will not run out of water. Period.
Context will tell you that we’re talking about losing access to water. If people won’t procreate because they don’t have water, it makes no difference if it’s because we are literally all out of water or if someone else is hoarding it all. In both cases, there’s no access to water.
Yeah every new technological solution has its associated ecological cost. Some are better than others. Guess which ones are the most profitable.
There’s something called the Kuznets environmental curve that explains this pretty intuitively. It’s an optimistic forecast that I only buy when I’m in a good mood.
Population will fall to about 132 million in the next two decades
Which means that it already is that low. If you don’t count the parts of Ukraine that Russia thinks it owns and the hundreds of thousands of young people who fled the country earlier in the war.
it was 144mil a couple years ago.
2-3 millions are dead or have fled for what I know.
But a birthrate at 1.5? That’s bad news, 0.6 lower than the replacement level (2.1) so every new generation will be 30% smaller!
Military losses are not deaths. Deaths are only a fraction of losses.
True, but 2-3 millions have died or fled the country.
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You’re literally rooting for the extinction of an ethnicity. Don’t conflate a people with their government. The folks in the Twin Towers did not deserve to die, regardless of all the horrible things their goverment has done. The folks at the October 7th festival did not deserve to die, regardless of the horrible things their government has done. Russians do not deserve to go extinct, regardless of the horrible things their government has done. Please try to keep your genocidal tendencies in check.
The population are not absolved of responsibility
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23538
Stop being an enabler.
So you’re saying October 7th was a good thing? And you’re saying that Ukraine deserved to be invaded on account of the 1919 pogroms? I strongly disagree, and I think you’re a ghoul for advocating such things.
Yes yes, “just doing my job, not my fault” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superior_orders
You’re talking sbout civiians, dumbass
So you’re stupid is intentional.
So are you saying Americans deserved 9/11? Because I disagree with that.
he would probably send 70 more million before he admits defeat, probably not. as long as men keep going to the meat grinder he doesnt care.
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I was permabanned from r/worldnews for this, due to racism, so I’m risking the same here. But there is a theory among armchair historians–which I tend to agree with–that Russians had been targets of regressive selective breeding for the past 450 years. Those who display any kind of individualism or independence (mainly educated, intellectuals, etc) have been selectively eliminated from the gene pool: via exile (best case scenario), or through prisons, labour camps or executions. After centuries of this, the share of independently thinking Russians in Russia is far lower than that of native population in Western European countries.
This is very prominent in science and technology: many of the top inventors weren’t ethnic Russians, but were born or had ancestry in countries that have been under Russian dictate (and regressive evolution) for a much shorter time period. Sergei Korolev, the father of Russian space program was ethnic Hungarian. Russia “boasts” only 15 Nobel laureates in STEM fields since 1917, and only one of them (Nikolay Semyonov) was an ethnic Russian who wasn’t in exile.
All this helps to explain why Russians are so passive in the face of authority. It also points at the fallacy of thinking that we can push them towards accepting western civilization and democracy in the short term. It will take a very long time and a lot of effort to bring them to the moral ideal of Western Europe.
I agree but not in genetic sense but more of a cultural sense imo.
I grew up in Eastern Europe and witnesses soviet collapse and culture shift myself. It went from this obedient “no my problem” passive anger and misery to a society that actually cares for each other and is warm and optimistic which only started to regress recently because of fucking ruskies again.
It’s so frustrating to see this great evil plague the world and pretend that it’s “1 bad putin” when the entire culture has been morphed into facilitating and growing this disgusting evil like rotting bread grows mold.
Better yet, I would like to see the idea of machismo itself get taken down a peg.
Wonder where you’re from
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Oh we are now upvoting posts that condemn a whole culture as evil. Very classy Lemmy.
Evil like raping your subordinates on the battlefield or evil like kidnapping children and cultural genocide? Or evil like sit on your hands and allow your rulers to destroy you and world security for hundreds of years?
It’s been deleted so don’t blame lemmy
Were they under orders to rape corpses or does that come natural
I wonder would you say the same thing about Nazis in 1940s
Seriously. If you are a woman, do you want to bring a child into this world?? Our climate is a disaster, and anyone who “could” do anything about it is doing everything they can to accumulate wealth at the expense of the planet. Fascism and misinformation is rampant. Geezus, people are telling Mothers that inoculations are bad. Think about that… polio vaccines that rescued generations of children from “iron lungs”, leg braces, and death. Those vaccines were developed from science. SCIENCE I’m an old lady now. If I was young and of child bearing years—I would not have children.
I promise you, the last thing on the minds of Russian women in this moment is climate change
I’m a woman, with two kids, they’re not my biological children. I never wanted to have kids but other people are having kids and I figure why not love the kids already here? There’s plenty of kids to go around there’s no need for me to personally make a kid. If the kids are already here we should do as much as we can to make their lives good but if they’re not already here it should stay that way.
100% agreed. If possible, get a rescue kid. (In general, without getting into the nitty gritty details about the adoption processes around the world.)
As a dude, I wouldn’t want to bring a kid into this shithole of a world either. Most of my generation doesn’t, and I can see why.
So, if you want to get snipped, does the doctor ask , “does your significant other agree with what you’re doing? Maybe they should be here during this decision”. Does that sound ridiculous?? Well, that’s what women deal with on a regular basis.
Im 57, i tried to have a vasectomy at 18 and was refused here in Australia mutiple times over 2 years because “I would change mind” and I was told I would meet somone who would want to have kid with me and they’d be upset if i was unable to."
I flew to Thailand in my late 20s and had it done at the end of a holiday there in a hospital in Bangkok, no pun intended.
Even in 2016 when I had mine done it had to be done abroad even though I lived in a country where any consenting adult can ask to be sterilised without legally mandated delays or any nanny state bullshit. I was poor otherwise I could have sued half the urologists in the country because they gave wrong reasons for refusing like me not having children and me being young.
One also scammed me by sending me to a psychiatrist buddy of his who just went on to spend 30 minutes insulting my intelligence for wanting to not bring children into this world. I’m glad I learned the lesson at that age that just because people are doctors it doesn’t mean they’re not disrespectful and/or stupid.
And you’re a woman, right?
“vasectomy” - so he is a man. You’re not helping your cause by antagonizing half of the population (men).
I hate to shit on your general point, but they absolutely do ask in this case.
I stand corrected
Not sure where you’re from. If a woman wants to sterilize in the U.S. it’s a HUGE problem: If you’re married they want the husband to verify your decision. If you’re a young woman, they’ll deny because “you may change your mind”. BUT, a man can get snipped no questions asked.
I’m a snipped man… there were a lot of questions.
I don’t know who told you “no questions asked”, but that definitely doesn’t match my lived experience.
I was refused (tried a few tines from 18-20) and had it done overseas im my late 20s. Thay was decades ago though so it might have changed.
Am Australian.
OK, but did the Doctor insist that your significant other/wife must come in and agree to the procedure?? NO. You answered a lot of questions, and the procedure went forward. It was YOUR decision.
So I refute one specific point of your argument. Another commenter even says they were outright denied. And your sane and rational response is “well that doesn’t matter” and you downvote me even though I was adding to the topic/discussion that you brought up?
Grow up dude.
Unfortunately for your case, you’re still wrong. But that won’t change your mind regardless and I’m not interested in talking to someone who acts the way you are.
It’s the false liability excuse. They think women will sue since it’s not as reversible. Really it’s management just justifying their jobs with bullshit policies.
Start locking up management who try to dictate patient care for practicing medicine without a license, see how fast most things level out.
That includes insurance groups, hospitals, and any other group who doesnt have an MD at the top level.
Australia.
yeah! that’s what I am thinking too, have been for years now. but at the same time babies are booming in the area (not russia, but east eu) so obviously a lot of people think differently.
You say booming ? But every woman needs to have 2.1.on average to have a stable population, so “booming” would be 4-8 at least, per woman. Is it that high ? Hungary ?
Australia’s first female member of it’s federal parliment had 13 kids for example, my mother was one of 8, I was one of three, my brother has 2, my sister and I none.
ok, not booming in that sense. but in comparison to what would I expect from the circumstances
If AI and robots will take over so many jobs, why is a declining birthrate a bad thing, in the long term?
depends on where its decling, if its only like elderly left and the young not reproducing thats would be a problem.
Because current society is built on the assumption that around 4 workers will support 1 person with social benefits like retirement money, healtcare or unemployment benefits. Robots are already used in many factories but don’t pay any of those. The robots will produce goods cheaper than humans, however corporations will own the robots, and still charge you the same price for the goods while receiving a larger margin.
So… you’re saying that… capitalism is the problem???
I don’t think ruzies are worried about technologies they can’t even afford.
because all wars are a war of attrition. the country with the largest military or the deepest pockets always wins.
Kinda rough to have babies if most of your men are being turned into fertilizer.
Invades the breadbasket of Europe, accidentally makes their crops even better.
Russian meat to sunflower oil pipeline
It amuses me that world leaders pretend to be surprised by declining birth rates. They know perfectly well that it’s because of their and/or their neighbors policies. The environment is being poisoned, and possibly destroyed. People are reluctant to bring a child into this world, and I think they’re right to be.
Also the average person can’t afford a kid anymore because all the money is hoarded for the rich.
almost all of them avoiding the discussion why its happening instead of trying to enact anti-abortion laws, or punishing peopel for not having children.
I haven’t read recent research on this, but at least until a decade or so ago, consciously not having children is a very small part of this. It’s more about economic outlooks and the immense pressure of expecting both parents of working full time and raising kids at the same time. Or wanting to have two kids, but putting off the decision so long that the chance of not having successful pregnancies rises a lot.
And even ones that want kids take one look at the economy and their bank accounts, and decide to wait until both look better, because they want to be able to afford the kids a happy childhood. The worst thing for population growth is giving people the ability to choose when, if ever, to get kids, and an environment they don’t want to have them in.
Two ways to fix that issue. Which one is used tells a lot.
also, people don’t got the space or the time to fuck
I mean technically you could solve the space issue by making sex less taboo
And finally removing the stigma associated with premature ejaculation. It’s called efficiency, maybe look it up.
Nahh people will always bu fcukib’, its just contraception, it’s often why the “moral arm of government” /s aka religions, go after contraception.
yes but they won’t
Speak for yourself
Time, sure, but how much space do you need to fuck?
more than the back seat of a car
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“Nooooo! Keep pumping out babies to feed to the capitalism meat grinder!!”
But it’s unthinkable for these leaders to change the policies that gave them the power and wealth they desire, so they’re gonna run with it until it falls apart, no matter the cost for everyone else.
That’s not a good look…
Even russian women don’t like russians.
I think the implication is actually that there’s a marked dropoff of eligible young Russian men. To preserve a generation, Russia might soon need to use more North Koreans on the Ukrainian front, but that comes with its own problems and risks.
It’s weird that Putin’s avoiding peace negotiations, as he more than anyone needs to find a way to scale back the war effort before his hold on power begins to waver. I get that he needs to save face while doing so, but he’s not gonna get conditions more favorable than a Trump administration, so the clock is ticking.
Consider that he might not want it to end. If it ends, a wartime economy is no longer an excuse/distraction and he’d have to contend more with the disaster he’s created.
i think kim stopped givign greedy putin more orcs. putin is running out of ethnic russians sooner or later.
yea putin, fuck the world up and then complain that people are not making kids. we will all die in our own filth when the infrastructure collapses and you can wipe your ass with all that money and power
No one wants their children to grow up in a corrupt Oligarchy.
